Props · NFL
Best NFL Week 4 Player Prop for Thursday: DK Metcalf
By Cal Draper — Player props specialist for MLB and the NFL. Cal works matchup splits, park factors and hit rates to find the lines books price last.
One game on the Thursday card, so one pick. When the slate is this thin, I'd rather find a prop where the usage is loud and the matchup cooperates than force action on a coin flip. DK Metcalf's reception total checks both boxes.
DK Metcalf, Steelers vs. Browns
Pick: DK Metcalf Over 3.5 Receptions (-122 at FanDuel)
Metcalf is getting fed. He's drawn 9, 5, 10, 9 and 5 targets over his last five games, and when a receiver is seeing that kind of volume, four catches is a low bar. He's averaging 3.7 receptions per game this season on lines of 4, 4 and 3, and he's gone over 3.5 in six of his last 10 dating back to last year.
The matchup helps too. Cleveland is allowing 152.7 yards per game to opposing wide receivers, ninth-most in the league, so the Steelers should have no problem moving the ball through the air when they need to. The one thing that gives me pause is the Browns' pass defense being more middle of the pack by yards per game and per attempt, so this isn't a defense you can pick on down the field all night. But Metcalf doesn't need deep shots to get to four grabs, he just needs his usual share of the targets, and nothing about his role suggests that's changing.
The Play
- DK Metcalf OVER 3.5 Receptions: -122