Game Preview · NCAAF
BYU vs. TCU Prediction, Odds and Pick for Saturday, Oct. 3
By Wyatt Deane — Spent nine seasons breaking down All-22 film for a college staff. Wyatt covers the NFL and college football through matchups and personnel.
BYU takes its No. 10 ranking on the road to face TCU at 7 p.m. ET on Saturday night. The Cougars are laying 6 points, and the game turns on whether the Horned Frogs can run the ball well enough to keep BYU's offense off the field. I don't think they can.
The Pick
Pick: BYU Cougars -6 (-108 at DraftKings)
BYU sits 17th nationally in SP+, the opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, and that gap shows up everywhere you look in this matchup. The Cougars are scoring 44 points per game through 3 games, 13th in the FBS, and the defense is holding teams to 15.7 points per game, 26th in the country. That's a strong unit on both sides of the ball.
Start in the trenches, because that's where this one gets decided. The Horned Frogs average 3.9 yards per carry and 138.8 rushing yards per game, and now they run into a BYU front allowing 2.9 yards per carry, 23rd in the FBS in run defense. If TCU can't stay on schedule on the ground, the whole offense stalls, and that puts everything on a passing game facing a defense giving up 15.7 a night.
When BYU has the ball, the Cougars gain 10.1 yards per pass attempt against a TCU secondary allowing 7.4 per attempt. That's nearly three free yards every time BYU drops back, and it feeds the best third-down number in this game: the Cougars are converting 61.3% of their third downs, 3rd in the FBS. Drives that stay alive turn into points, and points are how favorites cover.
What worries me is that TCU's defense is allowing just 12.5 points per game, 12th in the FBS, so if the Horned Frogs turn this into a low-scoring fight, 6 points is a lot to clear. The betting splits show 54% of bets on the Cougars but only 20% of the money, so the ticket count and the cash are telling different stories. I'll still lay it. BYU is better on every down, and the run defense takes away the one thing TCU needs to keep this close.
The Play
- BYU Cougars -6: -108