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Chiefs vs. Raiders Prediction, Odds and Pick for Sunday, Oct. 4

By Wyatt Deane — Spent nine seasons breaking down All-22 film for a college staff. Wyatt covers the NFL and college football through matchups and personnel.

Sun, Oct 4, 2026, 7:10 AM ET

The Chiefs head to Las Vegas on Sunday afternoon for a 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff against the Raiders, one of 14 games on the Week 4 slate. Both teams come in scoring 29.3 points a game, so the number is posted up at 47.5. I think the defenses have more to say about that than the offenses do.

The Pick

Pick: Chiefs/Raiders Under 47.5 (-105 at DraftKings)

Kansas City is allowing 16.7 points per game, 5th in the NFL, and that defense travels. The Raiders are giving up 18 points a game themselves, 8th in the league, so you've got two top-ten scoring defenses on the field in the same game. When I read a total, I start with who can stop somebody, and both of these teams can.

The matchup in the trenches backs it up. Las Vegas averages 3.5 yards per carry and 99.7 rushing yards a game, and the Chiefs allow exactly 3.5 yards per carry, 9th in the NFL in run defense. A team that can't run the ball on this defense becomes one-dimensional, and that plays right into Kansas City's hands. It's the same story through the air. The Raiders gain 6.3 yards per pass attempt, and the Chiefs are giving up only 5.2 per attempt, 4th in the league. Nothing about that says points come easy.

The recent history of these teams this season points the same direction. Games involving these two have averaged 46.7 total points, and this total is 47.5. That's a full point of cushion against how these teams have actually played.

What could go wrong is simple: both offenses are scoring 29.3 points a game through three weeks, 8th and 9th in the NFL, so the firepower is real. The Raiders are also +6 in turnover margin, and short fields can produce points in a hurry. If Brock Bowers sits, that takes a weapon away from Las Vegas, which helps the under more than it hurts. I'll side with the two defenses that have actually shown up every week.