Top 25 Picks · NCAAF

College Football Top 25 Picks: 4 Best Bets for Week 5

By Wyatt Deane — Spent nine seasons breaking down All-22 film for a college staff. Wyatt covers the NFL and college football through matchups and personnel.

Sat, Oct 3, 2026, 7:27 AM ET

Eighteen ranked teams take the field today across a 51-game slate that starts at 11 a.m. ET, so there's no shortage of spots to pick from. I'm betting two ranked favorites to cover big numbers, one over in a game where one offense should do most of the work, and one under where the market has already told us what kind of night to expect.

Texas Tech vs. Colorado, 7:30 p.m. ET

Pick: Texas Tech Red Raiders -13.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Texas Tech checks in at 11th nationally in SP+, the opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, and that gap against a Colorado team scoring 21.5 points per game (114th of 138 FBS teams) is the whole bet. The Red Raiders are 4-0 with a +71 point differential, and they're scoring 36.3 points per game while the defense allows just 18.5, 33rd in the FBS.

Colorado averages 3.9 yards per carry, and Texas Tech gives up 3.4, so the Buffaloes aren't going to run their way into long, clock-eating drives that keep this close. The one thing I'd flag is the line moving from -14.5 down to -13.5, which means some early money liked the Buffaloes. I'll take the better number and trust the efficiency gap.

Utah State vs. Boise State, 7:30 p.m. ET

Pick: Boise State Broncos -19.5 (-108 at DraftKings)

The money is screaming on this one: 36% of the bets but 88% of the money is on Boise State, which means the bigger, sharper wagers are laying the points with the Broncos. It's easy to see why. Utah State is scoring 13 points per game, 136th of 138 FBS teams, and ranks 105th in SP+.

The Aggies are also -6 in turnover margin through four games, and short fields are how a 20-point favorite covers by 30. Boise State averages 5.5 yards per carry and 237 rushing yards per game, and they're converting 50% of third downs, 22nd in the FBS, so the offense stays on the field and grinds. What worries me is that Utah State gives up just 5.7 yards per pass attempt, 16th in the FBS, so if the Broncos get sloppy through the air, the back door stays open late.

Indiana vs. Rutgers, 8 p.m. ET

Pick: Indiana/Rutgers Over 56.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

Indiana runs for 5.9 yards per carry and 233.5 rushing yards per game, and Rutgers allows 5 yards per carry, 122nd of 138 FBS teams in run defense. That's the matchup this total is built on. The Hoosiers are scoring 43.5 points per game, 14th in the FBS, and they gain 10.7 yards per pass attempt against a Scarlet Knights secondary giving up 7.6.

Rutgers allows 28.5 points per game on its own, so Indiana should handle most of the scoring by itself. The risk is the other side of the ball: the Hoosiers allow just 9.8 points per game, 4th in the FBS, and they hold teams to 2.2 yards per carry. If Indiana's defense dominates, Rutgers has to find points somewhere, and the total moving from 55.5 to 56.5 means I'm paying a slightly worse number for it.

Miami vs. Clemson, 7:30 p.m. ET

Pick: Miami/Clemson Under 47.5 (-108 at DraftKings)

This total opened at 55.5 and has crashed to 47.5, and I think the move is right. Miami's defense is allowing 9 points per game, 3rd in the FBS, and Clemson is scoring 21 points per game, 120th of 138 FBS teams. The Tigers gain 5.8 yards per pass attempt against a Hurricanes secondary giving up 5.3, 8th in the FBS.

The ground game doesn't offer Clemson much relief either: the Tigers average 4.2 yards per carry while Miami allows 1.9, 4th in the FBS in run defense. Add in a forecast of 74 degrees with a 70% chance of rain at Memorial Stadium, and conditions point toward a sloppy, low-scoring night. The honest concern is Miami's offense, which is scoring 51.8 points per game, 3rd in the FBS. If the Hurricanes get anywhere near that number, Clemson has to score to keep pace, and that's the path that beats me.