Best Bets · NCAAF

College Football Week 5 Picks: 2 Best Bets for Friday, Oct. 2

By Wyatt Deane — Spent nine seasons breaking down All-22 film for a college staff. Wyatt covers the NFL and college football through matchups and personnel.

Fri, Oct 2, 2026, 7:02 AM ET

Three games on the Friday card, the first starting at 7 p.m. ET, and I have two plays I like. One is a road underdog the money keeps backing, and the other is a road favorite laying less than a touchdown against an overmatched team.

Pittsburgh vs. Virginia Tech, 7 p.m. ET

Pick: Pittsburgh Panthers +2.5 (-105 at DraftKings)

The money is telling you something in this one. Pittsburgh is getting 76% of the bets and 82% of the money on the spread, and the line has moved from Panthers +4 down to +2.5. When that much of the cash lands on one side and the number follows, I pay attention.

The Panthers have earned it. Their defense is allowing 8.5 points per game, third in the FBS, and they rank 20th nationally in SP+. This is also a bad matchup for what Virginia Tech does best. The Hokies average 4.4 yards per carry and 177.8 rushing yards per game, but the Panthers allow just 2.1 yards per carry, sixth in the FBS. Take away the run and the Hokies have to beat a top defense through the air. Pittsburgh can score too, putting up 39.3 points per game through four games.

What worries me is that Virginia Tech is no slouch either, ranking 28th in SP+ and scoring 43.3 points per game. But I trust the Panthers defense to keep this inside a field goal, and I would not be surprised if they win it outright.

Liberty vs. Delaware, 7 p.m. ET

Pick: Liberty Flames -6.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

The efficiency gap in this one is hard to ignore. Delaware ranks 110th nationally in SP+, and Liberty has the kind of passing game that should expose them. The Flames gain 9.8 yards per pass attempt, and the Blue Hens are giving up 7.7 per attempt. That is a big play waiting to happen on nearly every dropback.

Delaware has not shown it can keep up. The Blue Hens are scoring 23.3 points per game through four games and converting just 33.3% of their third downs, 114th of 138 FBS teams. Their run game is no threat either, at 3.1 yards per carry and 98 rushing yards per game. Meanwhile the Flames defense is allowing 18.8 points per game, 38th in the FBS, so Delaware will have to earn everything.

The one thing giving me pause is that Liberty opened -7 and the line has come down to -6.5, and the Blue Hens do stop the run well, allowing 2.9 yards per carry. But Liberty does not need to run to cover this number. The Flames throw it, Delaware cannot sustain drives, and this gets into double digits.