Best Bets · MLB
Cubs and Pirates Offer Thursday Value Against Weaker Opponents
By Marisol Vega — Spent a decade grading tickets before she wrote a word about them. Marisol follows the money: line moves, steam, and where the sharp side actually landed. She writes the daily card the way a bettor reads it.
Thursday's MLB board has two spots where the market is giving us a clear edge, and I'm taking both.
Start with the Chicago Cubs at +102 in St. Louis. The Cubs come in at 61-47 with a run differential of +87 and a 6-4 record over their last ten games. Their offense has been productive all season, posting a .755 OPS, 5.19 runs per game, and a .322 xwOBA. The Cardinals, by contrast, are 54-54 with a run differential of -12 and a 3-7 mark in their last ten. Andre Pallante has a solid 3.77 ERA and an 11-6 record, but his 1.21 WHIP and 6.65 K/9 don't scare you. Javier Assad counters with a 3.86 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 6-1 record. The Cubs are the better team, and getting them at plus money on the road is a gift. Respect the close here, this number should be tighter.
The second play is the Pittsburgh Pirates at -117 in Cincinnati. The Pirates have a 55-54 record and a run differential of +37, while the Reds are 50-57 with a -70 run differential. Yohan Ramírez takes the mound for Pittsburgh with a 3.21 ERA and a 9.96 K/9, though his 1.38 WHIP is elevated. Still, he faces Rhett Lowder, who owns a 5.61 ERA, a 1.57 WHIP, and a 3-7 record. The Pirates offense ranks among the best in the National League with a .756 OPS, 5.17 runs per game, and a .321 xwOBA. The Reds have struggled to score consistently, and Lowder has been a liability all year. The number tells on itself, Pittsburgh should be a bigger favorite here.
Neither of these prices is a lock, but the underlying metrics point in one direction. The Cubs and Pirates are both getting the better of their matchups in terms of current form and starting pitching. I'll take the value where the market has left it.
The Play
- Chicago Cubs ML: +102
- Pittsburgh Pirates ML: -117
Confidence: Medium-high on both plays. The Cubs are the stronger team at a discounted price, and the Pirates have a clear pitching advantage.
Two plays that lean on performance over reputation. Follow the money, not the crowd