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Cubs vs. Padres Prediction and Pick: Moss's Best Bet for Tuesday

By Frankie Moss — Covers the news that moves lines: injuries, scratches and lineup changes. Frankie looks for the spots where the market overreacts to a headline.

Tue, Sep 29, 2026, 7:22 AM ET

The Cubs head to Petco Park to face the Padres at 10 p.m. ET, with Chicago already locked into a playoff spot and San Diego swinging it as well as anyone in baseball. Four games dot the Tuesday slate, but this late one is where I see the clearest angle. It comes down to a beat-up Cubs relief corps trying to hold down a Padres lineup that has been scoring in bunches.

The Pick

Pick: Cubs/Padres Over 7 (-115 at Caesars · play to -125)

Braxton Garrett has thrown 70 pitches over the last three days, and he's not even the only Cub reliever running on empty. Aaron Civale has 38 pitches and Javier Assad 35 over that same stretch. Somebody is going to have to cover innings in this game with tired arms, and tired arms give up runs.

The Padres are the last team you want to face when your pen is short. Over the last two weeks San Diego is scoring 6.3 runs per game with an .832 OPS, the most runs in baseball over that stretch. They're seeing the ball, they're driving it, and they get a Cubs staff that has nothing fresh behind the starter.

Chicago can do its part too. The Cubs own a .757 OPS against right-handed pitching this season, third in MLB, and Michael King has been hittable lately with 10 earned runs allowed over his last 17 innings across three starts. His season numbers are strong, a 3.21 ERA over 185 innings, but the recent version of King is the one taking the mound Tuesday. And when these two teams get together, runs follow: six meetings this season, an average of 13.8 combined runs per game.

What could kill it is the good version of King showing up, plus a Padres bullpen with a 3.53 ERA that's fifth in baseball locking things down late. I don't see it. With 73 degrees and barely any wind at first pitch, nothing about the conditions saves a worn-out pitching staff either. Seven runs is a low bar for these two.