Props · NFL

Draper's 2 NFL Week 4 Prop Picks for Sunday

By Cal Draper — Player props specialist for MLB and the NFL. Cal works matchup splits, park factors and hit rates to find the lines books price last.

Sun, Oct 4, 2026, 7:10 AM ET

Fourteen games on the board today, starting early at 9:30 a.m. ET, and I'm keeping it simple with two quarterbacks I trust to hit their numbers. Both of these guys have been clearing these lines consistently, and both are in spots where the game should push them toward the over.

Matthew Stafford, Rams vs. Eagles

Pick: Matthew Stafford Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-104 at BetRivers · play to -115)

Matthew Stafford averaged 2.6 passing touchdowns per game last season and cleared 1.5 in 17 of 20 games. That's the kind of consistency I'm looking for when I'm betting a guy to throw two scores. He's averaging 2 passing touchdowns per game this season through three games, and he's gone over this number in 8 of his last 10 outings. With Puka Nacua returning to the lineup against a typically stout Eagles run defense, there's a ton of value in Stafford to hit this number.

The Eagles are allowing 198 yards per game to opposing quarterbacks, which ranks 8th-most in the league. If the Rams can't protect Stafford or the Eagles get pressure early, this could get ugly. But Stafford's track record says he finds the end zone twice more often than not.

Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs vs. Raiders

Pick: Patrick Mahomes Over 238.5 Passing Yards (-113 at FanDuel)

The Chiefs are laying 4.5 points in a game with a 47.5 total, which works out to about 26 implied points for Kansas City. When a team is expected to score that much, the quarterback usually has a big day. He's averaging 270.7 passing yards per game this season and has gone over 238.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.

Last season he averaged 256.2 passing yards per game and cleared this number in 10 of 14 games. The Raiders are allowing 222.3 yards per game to opposing quarterbacks, the 14th-most in the league, so it's not like Mahomes is walking into a buzzsaw. If there's a concern, it's that Las Vegas is allowing just 226 passing yards per game, the 14th-fewest in the NFL. But Mahomes has been over this number with room to spare lately, and I'm not betting against him in a game the Chiefs are expected to control.