Game Preview · NFL

Eagles vs. Bears Prediction, Odds and Pick for Monday, Sept. 28

By Wyatt Deane — Spent nine seasons breaking down All-22 film for a college staff. Wyatt covers the NFL and college football through matchups and personnel.

Mon, Sep 28, 2026, 7:14 AM ET

Week 3 wraps up Monday night with the Philadelphia Eagles visiting the Chicago Bears at 8:15 p.m. ET. Both teams come in with offenses that have been producing, and games involving these two have averaged 49.5 total points this season. The matchup that decides this one is in the trenches and through the air: the Eagles gain 6.9 yards per pass attempt against a Bears defense giving up 7.8, while the Bears run for 169.5 yards a game against a Philadelphia front that has been middle of the pack against the run.

The Pick

Pick: Eagles/Bears Over 41.5 (-108 at BetMGM)

The strongest case for the over is simple: games involving these two teams have averaged 49.5 total points this season, and this total sits at 41.5. That is a full touchdown of cushion between what these games have produced and what we need Monday night.

The Bears are a big part of that. They are scoring 31 points per game through two weeks, fifth in the NFL, and they do it on the ground as much as anywhere. Chicago averages 5.3 yards per carry and 169.5 rushing yards per game, and the Eagles allow 3.9 yards per carry, 16th in the league. That is a run game that can move the ball and keep drives alive against a defense that has not been stopping anyone at an elite level.

On the other side, the Eagles gain 6.9 yards per pass attempt, and the Bears are giving up 7.8 per attempt, 28th in the NFL. That is a mismatch Philadelphia can exploit all night. These offenses also average 69.3 plays per game between them, a quicker pace than most, which means more snaps and more chances to score.

What worries me is the Eagles defense allowing just 21 points per game, 12th in the league. If Philadelphia controls this game and Chicago stalls, the under has a path. But with both offenses moving the ball the way they have, I like the points to keep coming.

Prop Pick: Jalen Hurts

Pick: Jalen Hurts Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+130 at BetMGM)

Jalen Hurts is averaging 2.5 passing touchdowns per game this season, with three in the opener and two last week. He gets a Bears pass defense allowing 259 passing yards per game, seventh-most in the NFL, and 7.8 yards per attempt, fifth-most. Chicago is also giving up 252 yards per game to opposing quarterbacks, the 10th-most in the league.

The concern is that Hurts went over this number in just 8 of 17 games last season, so it is not automatic. But the way he is playing right now against this secondary, two touchdown passes is a reasonable ask.