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Falcons vs. Packers Prediction, Odds and Pick for Thursday, Sept. 24

By Wyatt Deane — Spent nine seasons breaking down All-22 film for a college staff. Wyatt covers the NFL and college football through matchups and personnel.

Thu, Sep 24, 2026, 7:08 AM ET

One game on the Thursday slate, and it kicks at 8:15 p.m. ET with the Falcons visiting the Packers. Atlanta comes in 0-2 and desperate for anything to build on, while Green Bay gets a home game against the lowest-scoring offense in football. This one comes down to whether the Falcons can move the ball through the air at all against a Packers pass defense that has been one of the best in the league through two weeks.

The Pick

Pick: Green Bay Packers -5 (-108 at BetMGM)

The Falcons are scoring 8 points per game through two weeks, dead last in the NFL. That is the whole ballgame for me. You can't cover a 5-point spread on the road if you can't score, and nothing in Atlanta's profile says the points are coming Thursday night.

Start with the passing game, because that's where teams have to go when they're behind. The Falcons gain 4.6 yards per pass attempt, and the Packers are giving up 5 per attempt, 4th in the NFL. Atlanta's passing attack is bad against everybody, and this is one of the tougher matchups in the league for it. On top of that, Michael Penix Jr. is listed as questionable, so the Falcons may not even have their starter at full strength.

The rest of the profile matches the scoreboard. The Falcons are 0-2 with a -38 point differential, they're -6 in turnover margin through two games, and they're converting 28% of their third downs, 29th in the NFL. That's a team that can't stay on the field, gives the ball away, and has been buried by every opponent so far. Laying 5 with the home team in that spot is not a stretch.

What worries me is Green Bay's own offense stalling out. The Packers are converting 18.2% of their third downs, 31st in the NFL, so there's a world where this game is ugly and 5 points is a big number in a low-scoring slog. But even in that world, Atlanta has to score to make the spread matter, and I don't see where those points come from.

Another Angle

Pick: Falcons/Packers Under 43 (-107 at BetRivers)

The passing matchup points one way here, and it's down. The Falcons gain 4.6 yards per pass attempt and the Packers are giving up 5 per attempt, 4th in the NFL. Atlanta is already scoring just 8 points per game, 32nd in the league, and now they walk into one of the best pass defenses going.

The other side of the ball doesn't scream points either. The Packers average 3 yards per carry and 64.5 rushing yards per game, and the Falcons allow 3 yards per carry, 5th in the NFL in run defense. Green Bay is also converting 18.2% of their third downs, 31st in the NFL, and in the red zone they score touchdowns only 42.9% of the time. The betting splits lean the same way, with 49% of bets and 68% of the money on the under. The risk is the Packers defense allowing 28 points per game, 24th in the NFL, but that number has come against better offenses than this one.

Prop Pick: Jordan Love

Pick: Jordan Love Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-112 at DraftKings)

Love is averaging 2 passing touchdowns per game this season, hitting exactly 2 in each of his first two starts. That's the bet in a nutshell. He's gone over 1.5 passing touchdowns in 6 of his last 10 games, and last season he averaged 1.7 per game while clearing this number in 8 of 16.

The setup helps too. The total is 43 with the Packers at -5, which works out to about 24 implied points for them, and the Falcons are allowing 254 yards per game to opposing quarterbacks, the 14th-most in the league. If Green Bay scores in the mid-20s like the line suggests, most of that damage comes through the air with the run game stuck at 3 yards per carry.