Props · MLB
MLB Player Props Today: 3 Picks for Friday, Sept. 25
By Cal Draper — Player props specialist for MLB and the NFL. Cal works matchup splits, park factors and hit rates to find the lines books price last.
Seventeen games on today's card, and I kept coming back to hitters in good spots against right-handed pitching. All three of my guys have been clearing these numbers at a strong clip lately, and each one has a split that backs it up. Confirm your hitter is in the lineup before betting, since lineups aren't posted yet.
CJ Abrams, Nationals vs. Mets
Pick: CJ Abrams Over 0.5 Hits (-152 at BetRivers)
CJ Abrams has cleared this number in 8 of his last 10 games and 97 of 146 this season. That's the kind of consistency I want when I'm laying a bet on a guy to get one hit. Over his last 10 games he's hitting .308 with 3 home runs and 25 total bases, so he's seeing the ball well and doing damage when he connects.
Against right-handed pitching this season Abrams is hitting .276 with a .532 slugging percentage and 25 homers in 441 plate appearances. That's a split he's been exploiting all year. If there's a concern, it's that one hit is never a guarantee no matter how good the matchup looks on paper. But with the way he's been swinging it, I like his chances.
Gabriel Moreno, Diamondbacks vs. Padres
Pick: Gabriel Moreno Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-105 at Fanatics)
Gabriel Moreno is hitting .320 with a .503 slugging percentage against right-handed pitching this season, with 12 homers in 394 plate appearances. That's the split that matters most here, because Moreno has been punishing righties all year. He's also gone over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs in 7 of his last 10 games, so he's been productive in multiple ways lately.
Over his last 10 games Moreno is 15-for-40 with 4 home runs and 29 total bases. He's getting on base, driving in runs and scoring them too. The risk with a catcher is always that he gets a day off or gets pinch-hit for late, but if he's in there I'd play this.
Brandon Lowe, Pirates vs. Tigers
Pick: Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+107 at DraftKings)
Brandon Lowe has gone over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs in 8 of his last 10 games and 78 of 141 this season. He's been one of the more reliable bats in the Pirates lineup, and tonight he gets a matchup he can take advantage of. Tigers starter Jackson Jobe has allowed 1.5 home runs per nine innings in 40.2 innings this year, and left-handed hitters have a .668 OPS against him.
Lowe is hitting .281 with a .548 slugging percentage against right-handed pitching this season, with 26 homers in 438 plate appearances. Over his last 10 games he's 12-for-38 with 5 home runs and 28 total bases. What worries me is that Jobe is still a young arm with stuff that can miss bats, but Lowe has been too consistent against righties to pass on this spot.
The Play
- CJ Abrams OVER 0.5 Hits: -152
- Gabriel Moreno OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs: -105
- Brandon Lowe OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs: +107