Strikeout Props · MLB
MLB Strikeout Props Today: 3 Picks for Thursday, Sept. 24
By Cal Draper — Player props specialist for MLB and the NFL. Cal works matchup splits, park factors and hit rates to find the lines books price last.
Twelve games on today's slate, and I'm looking at three starters who can rack up strikeouts. Cam Schlittler has been dominant all season, Kumar Rocker is finding his rhythm, and Tyler Mahle gets a Reds lineup that whiffs more than almost anyone against righties.
Cam Schlittler, Yankees vs. Rays
Pick: Cam Schlittler Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+121 at DraftKings)
Cam Schlittler is having a monster season. He's got 234 strikeouts in 190.2 innings across 32 starts, a 31.3% strikeout rate that works out to 11 per nine, and a 1.94 ERA. Those are ace numbers, and he's been consistent doing it.
He's gone over 6.5 strikeouts in 7 of his last 10 starts and 20 of 32 on the season. His last five starts, most recent last, he's posted 8, 9, 10, 8, 6. He averages 6.2 innings and 98 pitches, so he's getting deep enough into games to clear this number. The Rays only strike out 19% of the time against right-handed pitching, the 2nd-lowest rate in MLB, which is the one thing that could slow him down. But Schlittler has been too good all year to fade him now.
Kumar Rocker, Rangers vs. Mets
Pick: Kumar Rocker Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+120 at Fanatics)
Kumar Rocker has been up and down, but his last five starts show he's capable of piling up strikeouts. He's posted 3, 8, 7, 5, 2 in that stretch, and he's gone over 4.5 in 7 of his last 10 starts. On the season, he's cleared this number 14 times in 26 starts.
The Mets strike out 22% of the time against right-handed pitching, the 12th-most in MLB, so they're giving him chances. Over the last two weeks, though, they've cut that down to 19.9%, which is something to watch. Rocker averages just 4.1 innings and 82 pitches per start, so he needs to be efficient. When he's on, though, he's shown he can get there.
Tyler Mahle, Braves vs. Reds
Pick: Tyler Mahle Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-132 at DraftKings)
The Reds strike out 25.6% of the time against right-handed pitching, the 2nd-most in MLB. Over the last two weeks, that number is up to 26.4%. That's the matchup Tyler Mahle is walking into, and it's a good one.
Mahle averages 6 innings and 94 pitches per start, so he's getting the workload to take advantage. This season he has 133 strikeouts in 144 innings, a 22.5% strikeout rate. He's gone over 5.5 in 5 of his last 10 starts and 10 of 26 on the year. His last five starts have been inconsistent, with 4, 9, 3, 3, 6 strikeouts, most recent last. But when the opponent swings and misses this much, I'm willing to bet on the matchup.
The Play
- Cam Schlittler OVER 6.5 Pitcher Strikeouts: +121
- Kumar Rocker OVER 4.5 Pitcher Strikeouts: +120
- Tyler Mahle OVER 5.5 Pitcher Strikeouts: -132