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NFL Week 3 Picks: 3 Best Bets for Sunday, Sept. 27

By Wyatt Deane — Spent nine seasons breaking down All-22 film for a college staff. Wyatt covers the NFL and college football through matchups and personnel.

Sun, Sep 27, 2026, 12:22 AM ET

Fourteen games on the Sunday card, starting at 1 p.m. ET, and it is the kind of slate where you can talk yourself into a dozen sides. I'm keeping it tight. Two of my plays are totals on games where the scoring just isn't there, and the third is a home favorite against a team that hasn't shown it can move the ball.

Rams vs. Broncos, 8:20 p.m. ET

Pick: Rams/Broncos Under 44 (-107 at BetRivers)

These two teams have played games averaging 35.5 total points this season, and the number sitting in front of us is 44. That's a big gap, and it's the whole argument. Denver is scoring 15 points per game through two weeks, 28th in the league, and the Rams defense is giving up 16.5 per game, 8th in the NFL. Last season the Broncos scored 23.6 a game and allowed 18.3, so a low-scoring game is who they are.

The pace helps too. These offenses average 56.8 plays per game between them, slower than most, and fewer snaps means fewer chances to score. The money agrees, with 66% of the handle on the under.

What could go wrong is the Rams run game. They average 5.3 yards per carry and 139 rushing yards a game, and Denver allows 5.2 a carry, 30th in run defense. If the Rams control it on the ground and finish drives, this gets uncomfortable. I still think the total is priced too high for these teams.

Raiders vs. Saints, 4:25 p.m. ET

Pick: Raiders/Saints Under 43.5 (-102 at DraftKings)

Last season the Raiders scored 14.2 points per game. That's the starting point. They were one of the worst offenses in football, and nothing about this matchup says they suddenly find points in New Orleans. The Raiders defense, meanwhile, is allowing 13.5 points per game, 5th in the league, so they can keep this game in the mud on their own.

The trenches favor the under as well. The Saints average 3 yards per carry and 71.5 rushing yards a game, and the Raiders allow just 3.3 per carry, 7th in run defense. If New Orleans can't run it, they become one-dimensional against a defense playing well.

The worry is the Saints' scoring. They're putting up 27 points per game through two weeks, 9th in the NFL, and these offenses average 69.8 plays per game between them, a quicker pace than most. If New Orleans gets into the 30s, the Raiders have to score some, and that's not a bet I want to need. But I'll take the Raiders defense and the Saints run game to keep this under the number.

Titans vs. Giants, 1 p.m. ET

Pick: New York Giants -2.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

The money is screaming Giants. Just 36% of the bets are on New York but 86% of the money is, which tells you the bigger, sharper wagers are laying the points with the home team. I'm comfortable following that.

Tennessee hasn't given anyone a reason to back them. The Titans are 0-2 with a -17 point differential, scoring 15 points per game, 29th in the league. Last season they scored 16.7 a game and allowed 28.1, and now Tony Pollard is questionable, which would thin out an offense that's already struggling. The Titans defense is middle of the pack, allowing 23.5 per game, so the Giants should be able to do enough at home.

The one thing that gives me pause is the run matchup. Tennessee averages 4.3 yards per carry and the Giants allow 5.2 a carry, 31st in run defense. If the Titans can run it and shorten the game, a field goal favorite gets dicey. But with wind around 22 mph and rain likely at MetLife, I don't trust the Titans to string together scoring drives, and the Giants winning by more than a field goal is the right side.