Props · NFL

NFL Week 3 Player Props: 1 Picks for Thursday, Sept. 24

By Nia Boateng — Fantasy and usage analyst. Nia tracks snaps, routes, targets and goal-line work, and she bets on opportunity before production.

Thu, Sep 24, 2026, 7:10 AM ET

One game on the Thursday slate, and it kicks at 8:15 p.m. ET with the Falcons visiting the Packers. With Atlanta struggling to score and Green Bay's defense looking tough against the pass, I'm focusing on a player who's been getting the ball consistently through the air.

Bijan Robinson, Falcons vs. Packers

Pick: Bijan Robinson Over 4.5 Receptions (-111 at DraftKings)

Bijan Robinson is averaging 5.5 receptions per game this season, and that's where I'd start. He's drawn 11, 8, 3, 10, and 4 targets over his last five games, which tells you the Falcons are scheming him the ball in the passing game. The Packers are allowing 67.5 yards per game to opposing running backs, the 12th-most in the league, so there's room for Robinson to work underneath.

What worries me is Green Bay's pass defense allowing just 189.5 passing yards per game and 5 yards per attempt, both top-10 marks. If the Falcons fall behind early and abandon the short passing game, Robinson's volume could dry up. But with Atlanta implied for about 19 points and likely playing from behind, I'd expect them to keep feeding him checkdowns and screens. Robinson cleared 4.5 receptions in 9 of 17 games last season, and his usage this year suggests he's on pace to top that.