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Padres vs. Brewers Prediction, Odds and Pick for Sunday, Oct. 4

By Frankie Moss — Covers the news that moves lines: injuries, scratches and lineup changes. Frankie looks for the spots where the market overreacts to a headline.

Sun, Oct 4, 2026, 7:09 AM ET

The Padres visit the Brewers at American Family Field on Sunday afternoon, first pitch at 4 p.m. ET, one of two MLB games on the slate. San Diego has already clinched a playoff spot, while Milwaukee comes in 103-59, 8-2 in its last 10 and 55-26 at home. This one comes down to the starting pitching matchup, Logan Henderson against Michael King.

The Pick

Pick: Milwaukee Brewers ML (-141 at BetRivers)

Logan Henderson has been one of the best starters in baseball this season, and that's where this bet starts. The Brewers right-hander owns a 2.47 ERA, a 0.84 WHIP and a 29.6% strikeout rate over 98.1 innings in 18 starts, with an 11-3 record to show for it. He's been just as sharp lately, allowing 4 earned runs in 15 innings (a 2.40 ERA) with 17 strikeouts over his last three starts.

Michael King is trending the other way. The Padres starter has given up 10 earned runs in 17 innings (5.29 ERA) over his last three starts, and now he walks into a park where Milwaukee is 55-26 this season. King's full-season line (3.21 ERA, 1.18 WHIP over 185 innings) is respectable, but the recent form gap between these two starters is wide, and I'd rather back the guy missing bats right now.

The Brewers lineup gives Henderson real support. Milwaukee has a .759 OPS against right-handed pitching this season, 2nd in MLB, so King won't get any easy innings even if he settles in. And if Henderson hands off a lead, the bullpen behind him has a 3.40 ERA, 3rd in MLB. This is a 103-win team with a +214 run differential playing at home with the better starter, the better lineup split and the better pen.

What worries me is the Padres' bats. Over the last two weeks San Diego is scoring 5.6 runs per game with a .728 OPS, 4th in MLB in runs over that stretch, so Henderson will have to earn this. But with the way he's throwing and everything stacked behind him, I'm backing the home side to get it done.