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Rangers vs. Twins Prediction and Pick: Vega's Best Bet for Friday

By Marisol Vega — Spent ten years grading tickets at a sportsbook. Marisol covers line movement, steam and closing-line value, and she writes the daily card.

Fri, Sep 25, 2026, 7:10 AM ET

The Rangers head to Target Field on Friday night sitting 3.0 games out of the final wild-card spot, so every game left on the schedule carries weight. They get a Twins team that has been one of the worst offenses in baseball over the last two weeks. Jacob deGrom gets the ball for Texas against Joe Ryan, and the form of those two starters is heading in opposite directions. This one sets up well for the visitors.

The Pick

Pick: Texas Rangers -1.5 (+155 at FanDuel)

Minnesota's lineup has gone quiet at the wrong time. Over the last two weeks the Twins are scoring 3.5 runs per game with a .634 OPS, 27th in MLB in runs over that stretch. That's a problem when deGrom is on the other side. Over his last three starts he's allowed 5 earned runs in 15.1 innings with 22 strikeouts, and his season line (3.86 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 30.4% strikeout rate over 158.2 innings) says the recent run is no fluke.

Joe Ryan hasn't been able to match that. He's given up 8 earned runs in 13 innings over his last three starts, a 5.54 ERA, and even when he gets through five or six the Twins bullpen behind him owns a 4.76 ERA, 26th in MLB. Texas doesn't need a slugfest to cover here. It needs deGrom to keep a cold lineup cold and let the offense scratch across enough against a starter and a relief corps that have both been leaking runs.

The concern is the Rangers' own bats against righties, a .691 OPS this season, 27th in MLB, plus an 0-3 record against the Twins where they've been outscored 7-25. That's real. But the version of Minnesota from those earlier games isn't the one taking the field Friday, not with this offense and not with Ryan's current form. I'd lay the run and a half with the better pitcher and the team playing for something.

Prop Pick: Josh Jung

Pick: Josh Jung Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-110 at DraftKings)

Josh Jung is swinging it as well as anyone in the Texas lineup right now. Over his last 10 games he's 13-for-39 (.333) with 3 home runs and 26 total bases, and he's cleared this hits plus runs plus RBIs number in 6 of those 10. On the season he's at .299/.363/.462 with 12 home runs, and he's gone over in 59 of 100 games.

The matchup helps. Ryan has allowed 1.4 home runs per nine across 138.2 innings, and when the Twins go to the pen it gets worse, a 4.76 ERA that ranks 26th. Jung's splits against righties (.276 with a .434 slugging percentage) are a step down from his overall line, so that's the one thing giving me pause. Check that he's in the lineup before betting, since lineups aren't posted yet. If he is, his current form against this pitching staff is worth a play.