Best Bets · UFC

Three underdogs worth backing on Saturday's UFC card

By Marisol Vega — Spent a decade grading tickets before she wrote a word about them. Marisol follows the money: line moves, steam, and where the sharp side actually landed. She writes the daily card the way a bettor reads it.

Thu, Jul 30, 2026, 7:34 AM ET

The Saturday card has plenty of chalk, but the real value lives on the underdog side of the board. Three fighters with proven finishing ability and favorable recent form are being offered at prices that don't reflect their true chances. Follow the money, not the crowd, the numbers here tell a story the public is ignoring.

Start with Jan Blachowicz at +260 against the undefeated Navajo Stirling. Blachowicz owns a 29-11-2 record with 9 wins by knockout and 9 by submission, including a KO win over Aleksandar Rakic and a decision over Israel Adesanya. His last five fights show two losses to elite competition in Carlos Ulberg and Alex Pereira, but also two wins. Stirling is 10-0 with 5 knockouts, but his last five wins include three decisions against lower-tier opponents. The line opened with Blachowicz at +245 and Stirling at -305 at DraftKings; now Blachowicz sits at +260 and Stirling at -325 at BetMGM. That move tells me the public is chasing the undefeated record, not the actual matchup. Respect the close, this number is too wide for a former champion with Blachowicz's resume.

Next, Alexander Poppeck at +190 against Jovan Leka. Poppeck is 21-5 with 7 knockouts and no submission wins, meaning he lives and dies by the left hand. His last five include a KO win over Francisco De Souza and a decision over Csaba Hocz, with losses only to Taylor Johnson and Jamahal Hill by decision and KO respectively. Leka is 13-2, but he has never faced someone with Poppeck's volume or power. At plus-money, Poppeck offers a live finish-or-nothing profile that fits the heavyweight division's volatility.

Finally, Mark Vologdin at +150 against Borislav Nikolic. Vologdin is 12-4-2 and has won four of his last five, with those wins coming by knockout and submission, he has 6 KO and 4 SUB finishes overall. His last five include a submission win over Nodar Khotenashvili and a KO over Ricardo Monteiro. Nikolic is 16-2, but he has no recent form listed in the data, and Vologdin's line hasn't moved from +150 despite his momentum. That's a quiet tell that the market isn't adjusting for his finishing streak.

Three dogs, three different paths to victory. The closing line value on Blachowicz alone makes this card worth a look.