Best Bets · UFC
Two live dogs worth backing on Saturday's UFC card
By Marisol Vega — Spent a decade grading tickets before she wrote a word about them. Marisol follows the money: line moves, steam, and where the sharp side actually landed. She writes the daily card the way a bettor reads it.
This Saturday's UFC card is loaded with prospects priced like they've already arrived. The market is asking you to lay heavy juice on Christian Leroy Duncan at -350 and Jacobe Smith at -162. I'd rather take the plus money on two veterans who have been here before.
Jared Cannonier at +275 is the sharpest number on the board. Cannonier, 18-9, has shared the cage with the division's best and owns a knockout win over Gregory Rodrigues, the same man who handed Christian Leroy Duncan his most recent loss by decision. Duncan is 14-2 with 10 knockouts and has won four of his last five, but his last two wins came against Roman Dolidze and Marco Tulio, not exactly a murderer's row. Cannonier's power is real, and at this price you're getting a former title challenger who has finished 10 fights by knockout. The number tells on itself.
Kevin Holland at +136 is the second dog I'm circling. Jacobe Smith enters 12-0 with 9 knockouts, but his last five wins came against Josiah Harrell, Preston Parsons, Christien Savoie, and Jared McLoughlin. None of those names are ranked. Holland is 29-15 with 13 knockouts and 10 submissions, and he has wins over Gunnar Nelson and a split decision over a durable veteran. Smith has never faced anyone with Holland's length, creativity, or finishing ability. At plus money, you're getting a proven UFC staple against an untested prospect. Follow the money, not the crowd.
The Play
- Jared Cannonier ML: +275
- Kevin Holland ML: +136
Confidence: Medium-high on Cannonier, medium on Holland
Two veterans who have been in deep waters against stiffer competition than what these prospects have seen. Respect the close, if these numbers tighten by fight time, the sharp money already got there.