Best Bets · UFC

Two live underdogs worth backing on Saturday's UFC card

By Dez Okafor — Dez spent six years working regional MMA shows, cageside, scoring every round in a notebook nobody asked for. He bets fights the way he judged them: styles, pace, and finishing rate over name value. Cards are won in the matchups nobody watches.

Thu, Aug 6, 2026, 7:45 AM ET

What happens when a power puncher meets a fighter who can't match her finishing rate? That's the question at the heart of the women's flyweight bout between Juliana Miller and Ravena Oliveira, and the answer points squarely to the underdog.

Miller enters as a -300 favorite, but her record tells a different story. At 5-4 with only one knockout win in her career, she has lost three of her last five fights, including a KO loss to Luana Santos. Oliveira, meanwhile, is 7-4-1 and has won her last two fights by knockout, part of a career total of six KO wins out of seven victories. Her finishing method is clear: she puts opponents away. Miller has never shown that kind of one-shot power. At +240, Oliveira is the kind of live dog who can end a fight at any moment.

The welterweight matchup between Billy Ray Goff and Ty Miller offers a similar dynamic. Goff is listed at -400 despite a 9-4 record and no recent fight data in the briefing. Miller is 7-0, undefeated, with three knockout wins on his ledger. His last five fights include a KO over Adam Fugitt and a decision win over Jimmy Drago. I'll admit, I'm a sucker for undefeated prospects getting plus money, and +310 on a fighter who has never lost is a price worth taking against a favorite with no visible momentum.

The main event between Mateusz Gamrot and Quillan Salkilld is a closer call, but the value is on the underdog side there too. Gamrot at +125 has a 26-4 record with wins over Rafael Dos Anjos and Charles Oliveira, though he has lost three of his last five. Salkilld is on a five-fight win streak and is a slight favorite at -150. The line is tight, and I'd rather take the plus money on a proven veteran than lay juice on a rising prospect in a pick-em fight.

Names sell tickets, styles cash them. Oliveira and Miller are both underdogs with clear paths to victory, and the prices are soft enough to make them worth a play.

Two underdogs with finishing power and undefeated records, respectively, against opponents who have shown cracks. The numbers support the fade.