Best Bets · MLB
Two underdogs with real closing line value on Wednesday's slate
By Marisol Vega — Spent a decade grading tickets before she wrote a word about them. Marisol follows the money: line moves, steam, and where the sharp side actually landed. She writes the daily card the way a bettor reads it.
The Kansas City Royals are getting no respect at Dodger Stadium. It starts on the mound. Daniel Lynch IV has been outstanding this season, posting a 2.45 ERA with a 1.01 WHIP and a .193 batting average against across 47.2 innings. He faces Eric Lauer, who carries a 4.89 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP for the Dodgers. Los Angeles owns the league's best offense by xwOBA at .340, but they've been ice cold at the dish, ranking 28th in wRC+ this month, a big reason why they've only won three of their last seven.
The Washington Nationals offer a similar setup against the Chicago Cubs. David Peterson takes the ball for the Cubs with a 5.35 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP, numbers that have been propped up by a .274 batting average against and a .424 xwOBA allowed. The Nationals counter with a lineup that ranks among the most productive in baseball: a .768 OPS, 5.36 runs per game, and a .330 xwOBA that leads the sport. With a high-variance team like the Nationals, you're always looking for underdogs at these prices, and the juice just proves to be worth the squeeze on this one.
The public continues to back the big names and teams, but with both of these lineups coming in sneaky hot recently, the Royals and Nationals are live underdogs tonight.
The Play
- Kansas City Royals ML: +192
- Washington Nationals ML: +148
Two dogs, two edges, one slate. The number tells on itself, take the value before it vanishes.