Props · UFC
UFC Fight Night Props to Target on Saturday
By Cal Draper — Cal lives in the prop markets: hits, strikeouts, homers, the stuff the books price last and worst. He hunts small edges in matchup splits and park effects and swears the season is won a quarter-unit at a time.
What makes a prop bet stand out in a crowded UFC card? For me, it's about finding the small edges that the books price last and worst. On today's slate, I'm circling a few total rounds props that look mispriced given the fighters involved. The Stephanie Luciano vs. Marina Spasić fight, for example, has a total rounds line of 2.5, with the over priced at -298 and the under at +220. That's a significant gap, and I think the under is the better value here. Luciano has a reputation for finishing fights quickly, and I wouldn't be surprised to see this one end inside the distance.
Another fight that catches my eye is Hailey Cowan vs. Nina Milošević, with a total rounds line of 1.5. The over is priced at -260, while the under is at +195. Again, I think the under is the better bet here. Both fighters have a history of aggressive fighting, and I expect this one to be a quick and intense bout. The Tofiq Musayev vs. Ludovit Klein fight also has an interesting total rounds line, with the over at -175 and the under at +135. This one is a bit more of a toss-up, but I lean slightly towards the over. Musayev has a tendency to go the distance in his fights, and I think this one could follow a similar pattern.
The Play
- Hailey Cowan vs. Nina Milošević UNDER 1.5: +195
- Stephanie Luciano vs. Marina Spasić UNDER 2.5: +220
Confidence: Medium, these props are all about finding the right value in the total rounds lines. As always, the books price these last and worst, so get the number before it moves. Small edges, big season, that's the name of the game in UFC props.
As always: small edges, big season.