Game Preview · MLB

Yankees vs. Rays Prediction, Odds and Pick for Monday, Oct. 5

By Marisol Vega — Spent ten years grading tickets at a sportsbook. Marisol covers line movement, steam and closing-line value, and she writes the daily card.

Mon, Oct 5, 2026, 7:30 AM ET

The Yankees head to Steinbrenner Field on Monday night to face the Rays in an 8 p.m. ET start, with New York already locked into a playoff spot. This one comes down to the mound matchup. The Yankees send Cam Schlittler, one of the best starters in baseball this season, against Freddy Peralta, who has been sharp lately but shaky all year. If Schlittler pitches like he has all season, the Yankees should win this game going away.

The Pick

Pick: New York Yankees -1.5 (+146 at Caesars)

Cam Schlittler is the reason to lay the runs. The Yankees right-hander has been dominant all season, posting a 1.95 ERA and 0.92 WHIP with a 31.4% strikeout rate over 193.2 innings in 33 starts. He is 14-6 and has been even better lately, allowing just 2 earned runs in 15 innings over his last three starts with 19 strikeouts. That is a pitcher in complete control, and he gives New York a massive edge every time he takes the ball.

Peralta has been a different story. The Rays starter owns a 4.42 ERA and 1.33 WHIP this season with a 10-11 record over 169 innings in 32 starts. His 21.4% strikeout rate is fine, but he has been hittable and inconsistent for most of the year. The Yankees have a +138 run differential and a 47-34 road record, which tells you they travel well and beat the teams they are supposed to beat. Tampa Bay is not a team that should hang with New York when Schlittler is on the mound.

The Yankees bullpen also gives them room to cover. New York's relievers have a 3.13 ERA this season, 2nd in MLB, so even if Schlittler only goes six or seven innings, the lead should be safe. The 28 blown saves are a reminder that nothing is automatic, but this bullpen has been one of the best in the league at protecting advantages.

What worries me is that Peralta has been excellent lately, allowing just 1 earned run in 16 innings over his last three starts with 14 strikeouts. The Rays also have a .752 OPS against right-handed pitching this season, 4th in MLB, so they can hit righties. But Schlittler has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this year, and the Yankees are the better team in every phase. I am laying the runs.