Props · NFL

Boateng's 4 NFL Week 7 Prop Picks for Sunday

By Nia Boateng — Fantasy and usage analyst. Nia tracks snaps, routes, targets and goal-line work, and she bets on opportunity before production.

Sun, Oct 25, 2026, 7:11 AM ET

A dozen games on the board and I'm going with four overs. Stafford is throwing it all over the yard, Wilson is drawing targets in bunches, Walker's carry count is massive and Johnson has been a steady target for the Saints.

Matthew Stafford, Rams vs. Raiders

Pick: Matthew Stafford Over 255.5 Passing Yards (-115 at BetMGM)

Matthew Stafford has cleared 255.5 passing yards in 8 of his last 10 games, and he's averaging 299 per game this season. The line is sitting at 255.5.

The Raiders are giving up 253.5 yards per game to opposing quarterbacks, 5th-most in the league, and their pass defense is allowing 255 passing yards per game, 8th-most in the NFL. The total is 48.5 with the Rams favored by 3, which works out to about 25.8 implied points for them. If there's a concern, it's that one game this season he finished with 155 yards. The volume and matchup both point up.

Michael Wilson, Cardinals vs. Broncos

Pick: Michael Wilson Over 4.5 Receptions (+100 at DraftKings · play to -105)

Michael Wilson is averaging 5.5 receptions per game this season, and his target counts over the last five games are 7, 17, 13, 7 and 7. Even in his quieter weeks he's drawing 7 targets.

He's gone over 4.5 receptions in 6 of his last 10 games. The risk here is Denver's defense. The Broncos allow just 142 yards per game to opposing wide receivers, 6th-fewest in the league, and they give up only 5.8 yards per attempt. Wilson doesn't need yards though, he needs catches, and his target volume has been steady enough to get him there.

Kenneth Walker III, Chiefs vs. Seahawks

Pick: Kenneth Walker III Over 80.5 Rushing Yards (-110 at DraftKings)

Kenneth Walker III is averaging 133 rushing yards per game this season, and his carry counts over the last five are 23, 24, 18, 22 and 19. You don't see that kind of workload often. When a back is getting 20-plus touches a game and ripping off 133 yards a week, an 80.5 line feels low.

He's gone over this number in 7 of his last 10 games. What worries me is the matchup. Seattle's run defense is allowing just 80 rushing yards per game, 7th-fewest in the NFL, and 3.3 yards per carry, 3rd-fewest. Walker will need his volume to overcome a tough front, but 20 carries against almost anyone gives him a path to 81 yards.

Juwan Johnson, Saints vs. Steelers

Pick: Juwan Johnson Over 3.5 Receptions (-111 at DraftKings)

Juwan Johnson averaged 4.5 receptions per game last season and cleared 3.5 in 12 of 17 games. That kind of consistency at tight end is rare, and he's kept it going this year with 4.2 catches per game through six weeks.

He's gone over 3.5 receptions in 7 of his last 10 games, and his target counts over the last five include games of 8, 8 and 5. The concern is Pittsburgh's defense. The Steelers allow just 45.5 yards per game to opposing tight ends, 11th-fewest in the league, and their pass defense ranks 10th-best at 221 yards allowed per game. Johnson only needs 4 catches though, and his floor has been solid all season.