Props · MLB

Draper's 3 MLB Prop Picks for Wednesday

By Cal Draper — Player props specialist for MLB and the NFL. Cal works matchup splits, park factors and hit rates to find the lines books price last.

Wed, Sep 23, 2026, 7:14 PM ET

Wednesday's card gives us seven games to work with, and I'm looking at three different ways to attack the prop market. We've got a power bat in a good spot against a homer-prone righty, a veteran hitter at Coors Field facing a struggling starter, and a strikeout pitcher who should feast on a lineup that swings and misses plenty.

Griffin Conine, Marlins vs. Cubs

Pick: Griffin Conine Over 0.5 Hits (-118 at DraftKings · play to -130)

Griffin Conine has punished right-handed pitching all season, hitting .260 with a .524 slugging percentage and 16 homers in 243 plate appearances against them. That's the profile you want when you're betting on a guy to get a hit, and Kevin Gausman fits the mold of a pitcher Conine can do damage against. Gausman has a 4.55 ERA and gives up 1.3 home runs per nine innings, and left-handed hitters have a .691 OPS against him.

Conine is batting cleanup tonight and has cleared this number in 6 of his last 10 games. He's gone over 0.5 hits in 39 of 66 games this season, so we're talking about a guy who gets a hit more often than not. The recent form hasn't been great, just 10-for-44 over his last 10, but the matchup against Gausman and the platoon advantage make this a good spot for him to bounce back.

Nolan Arenado, Diamondbacks vs. Rockies

Pick: Nolan Arenado Over 1.5 Total Bases (+118 at BetRivers)

Mason Adams has been getting lit up lately, allowing 10 earned runs in 14 innings over his last three starts for a 6.43 ERA. Now he has to pitch at Coors Field, which plays about 16% above average for home runs, and face Nolan Arenado, who has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball. Arenado is 16-for-37 (.432) with 5 home runs and 34 total bases over his last 10 games, and he's cleared 1.5 total bases in 7 of those 10.

Adams has a 5.09 ERA on the season and gives up 2.3 homers per nine innings in his 23 innings of work. The Rockies bullpen behind him ranks 27th in baseball with a 4.84 ERA, so even if Adams somehow gets through a few innings, the relief help isn't there. What worries me is that Arenado is hitting just .241 with a .430 slugging percentage against righties this season, but his recent form and the ballpark override that concern for me.

Nolan McLean, Mets vs. Rangers

Pick: Nolan McLean Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-120 at Fanatics)

Nolan McLean has been one of the better strikeout pitchers in baseball this season, fanning 189 hitters in 172.2 innings with a 26.2% strikeout rate and a 3.18 ERA across 30 starts. He's averaging 6 innings and 95 pitches per start, so he's getting deep enough into games to rack up the Ks. Tonight he faces a Rangers lineup that has struck out in 26.5% of their plate appearances over the last two weeks, and they whiff 22.5% of the time against right-handed pitching, the 9th-highest rate in the league.

McLean has gone over 5.5 strikeouts in 20 of his 30 starts this season, so he's clearing this number two-thirds of the time. The recent results are a bit concerning though, as he's posted 6, 4, 7, 5 and 5 strikeouts in his last five starts. That's three misses in his last five, but the Rangers have been swinging through pitches lately and that gives him a good chance to get back over this number tonight.