Best Bets · MLB

MLB Best Bets Today: 3 Picks for Wednesday, Sept. 23

By Marisol Vega — Spent ten years grading tickets at a sportsbook. Marisol covers line movement, steam and closing-line value, and she writes the daily card.

Wed, Sep 23, 2026, 7:10 PM ET

Seven games on the Wednesday card, with the first pitch at 7:40 p.m. ET out of Wrigley. I'm playing two overs and laying the run line with a road favorite, and all three picks lean on the same thing: starters who've been getting hit and bullpens running on fumes.

Marlins vs. Cubs, 7:40 p.m. ET

Pick: Marlins/Cubs Over 6.5 (-120 at DraftKings · play to -135)

The Cubs hit right-handed pitching as well as anyone in baseball, a .760 OPS on the season that ranks 2nd in MLB, and they're facing Ryan Gusto tonight. Gusto's last three starts have been rough: 9 earned runs in 15 innings, a 5.40 ERA. Miami's no slouch against righties either, sitting 7th in MLB with a .741 OPS, so both lineups match up well here.

The bigger problem for the Marlins is what's behind Gusto. Michael Petersen has thrown 43 pitches over the last three days, Calvin Faucher 40 and Victor Vodnik 38, so there's almost nothing rested in that pen. These teams have also played 4 times this season and averaged 10.3 combined runs, and the Cubs are scoring 5.7 per game over the last two weeks.

The one thing working against runs is the Wrigley forecast, 62 degrees with a 15 mph wind blowing in. With two lineups this comfortable against right-handed pitching and a gassed bullpen, I'll take my chances that the bats beat the breeze.

Padres vs. Dodgers, 10:10 p.m. ET

Pick: Padres/Dodgers Over 8 (-110 at BetMGM)

Robbie Ray has been getting tagged, and that's where this starts. Over his last three starts he has given up 13 earned runs in 13.1 innings, an 8.78 ERA, and now he walks into a Dodgers lineup with a .758 OPS against left-handed pitching, 5th in MLB. San Diego's offense is the hottest in baseball right now too, scoring 6.7 runs per game with a .908 OPS over the last two weeks, best in the league in that stretch.

Even if Yoshinobu Yamamoto deals early, the Dodgers pen behind him is worn down. Emmet Sheehan has thrown 93 pitches over the last three days, Edwin Díaz 44 and Alex Vesia 41. The weather cooperates as well, 77 degrees and mostly clear with a light 5 mph wind, and these clubs have averaged 8.1 combined runs across 11 meetings this season.

Yamamoto is the real obstacle, a 2.51 ERA and 0.87 WHIP on the year with a 2.14 ERA over his last three starts. He's the best arm on either side, but with the division already clinched and a taxed pen behind him, I think the Padres get to the middle innings.

Mets vs. Rangers, 8:05 p.m. ET

Pick: New York Mets -1.5 (+159 at Caesars)

Cody Bradford has been a batting-practice arm lately, and that's the heart of this play. Over his last three starts he has allowed 11 earned runs in 13.2 innings, a 7.24 ERA, with only 4 strikeouts. Texas has struggled against right-handed pitching all year, a .694 OPS that ranks 26th in MLB, and now they face Nolan McLean, who owns a 3.18 ERA and a 26.2% strikeout rate over 172.2 innings this season.

The Mets' offense gives McLean room to work. They're scoring 5.2 runs per game over the last two weeks, 8th in MLB in that span, and the Rangers bullpen is thin behind Bradford with Jordan Montgomery at 51 pitches and Robert Garcia at 42 over the last three days. If Bradford exits early, which his recent form suggests, this can get lopsided fast.

What gives me pause is the Mets' own pen, with Jefry Yan at 47 pitches and Kodai Senga at 45 over the last three days, plus a .682 OPS against lefties that's 24th in MLB if Texas gets to McLean. McLean's form says otherwise, and I'm laying the run line.