Parlay · MLB

MLB Parlay Today: 2-Leg Parlay for Saturday, Sept. 26 (+304)

By Marisol Vega — Spent ten years grading tickets at a sportsbook. Marisol covers line movement, steam and closing-line value, and she writes the daily card.

Two legs, one ticket, and both have to cash or the whole thing dies. That's the deal with any parlay, and this one pays about +304 if both sides come through. I'm starting with a low-scoring game in Milwaukee and finishing with a home dog that isn't really a dog at all in Kansas City.

Cardinals vs. Brewers, 7:10 p.m. ET

Pick: Cardinals/Brewers Under 7.5 (-102 at Caesars)

St. Louis can't hit right-handed pitching, and that's putting it kindly. The Cardinals have a .688 OPS against righties this season, 29th in MLB, and over the last two weeks they're scoring 3.3 runs per game with a .572 OPS. Milwaukee's lineup won't need to do much to keep this total in check.

Cardinals starter Quinn Mathews has been solid lately with a 2.75 ERA over his last three starts, and the Brewers bullpen has a 3.39 ERA, third-best in baseball. American Family Field plays about 10% below average for run scoring. What worries me is the Cardinals pen. Cooper Hjerpe, Luis Gastelum and Brycen Mautz have all thrown heavy pitch counts over the last three days, and if Mathews can't go deep, tired arms could let this game get loose late.

Guardians vs. Royals, 7:10 p.m. ET

Pick: Kansas City Royals ML (+104 at BetRivers)

Cleveland starter Tanner Bibee has allowed 13 earned runs over his last three starts, a 7.47 ERA in 15.2 innings. The Guardians bullpen is also running on fumes, with Tim Herrin, Hunter Gaddis and Matt Festa all logging 35 or more pitches over the last three days.

Michael Wacha takes the ball for the Royals with a 3.33 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP over 194.1 innings this season, and he's been even better lately with a 3.06 ERA over his last three starts. The Guardians have a .701 OPS against right-handed pitching, 25th in MLB. The betting splits show 98% of the money on Kansas City, and I'm comfortable laying it with them. The risk is the Royals bullpen, which has a 5.05 ERA and 26 blown saves. If Wacha hands over a lead, it might not be safe.

Parlay: Cardinals/Brewers Under 7.5 + Kansas City Royals ML (+304 at the prices listed)

The Play

  • St. Louis Cardinals/Milwaukee Brewers UNDER 7.5 Total Runs: -102
  • Kansas City Royals ML: +104

2-leg parlay at the listed prices: +304

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