Parlay · MLB
MLB Parlay Today: 3-Leg Parlay for Friday, Sept. 25 (+536)
By Marisol Vega — Spent ten years grading tickets at a sportsbook. Marisol covers line movement, steam and closing-line value, and she writes the daily card.
Friday's card gives us 17 games, and I'm tying three of them together at about +536. The legs fit because each one leans on the same thing: pitching form and tired arms. A parlay needs every leg to win, so one bad inning anywhere sinks the ticket.
Cardinals vs. Brewers, 7:40 p.m. ET
Pick: Cardinals/Brewers Under 8 (-105 at DraftKings · play to -115)
Robert Gasser has been excellent for the Brewers, allowing 2 earned runs over 16.2 innings across his last three starts with 12 strikeouts. That's a 1.08 ERA, and he's backed by a bullpen with a 3.37 ERA, third-best in MLB. American Family Field also plays about 10% below average for run scoring, and the Cardinals have managed just 3.5 runs per game over the last two weeks. What worries me is Milwaukee's own offense, which is scoring 6.1 runs per game over that same stretch.
Rays vs. Phillies, 6:40 p.m. ET
Pick: Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 (-148 at BetRivers)
Freddy Peralta has been sharp, giving up 2 earned runs in 16.2 innings over his last three starts. Cristopher Sánchez, meanwhile, has struggled lately with a 6.27 ERA over his last three, and the Phillies are hitting just .707 OPS against right-handed pitching this season. Philadelphia's bullpen has a 4.35 ERA, so even if Sánchez settles in, the Rays should stay within a run. The risk is the Rays pen, where Mason Englert has thrown 86 pitches over the last three days.
Pirates vs. Tigers, 6:40 p.m. ET
Pick: Detroit Tigers ML (-106 at Caesars)
Pittsburgh's bullpen is running on fumes, with Khristian Curtis at 71 pitches and Gregory Soto at 36 over the last three days. That's a problem against a Tigers lineup scoring 5.2 runs per game with an .833 OPS over the last two weeks. Jackson Jobe has been solid for Detroit, striking out 24 over 17.1 innings in his last three starts. If the Pirates get to Jobe early, this gets tight, because they own a .751 OPS against righties, fifth-best in MLB.
Parlay: Cardinals/Brewers Under 8 + Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 + Detroit Tigers ML (+536 at the prices listed)
The Play
- St. Louis Cardinals/Milwaukee Brewers UNDER 8 Total Runs: -105
- Tampa Bay Rays +1.5: -148
- Detroit Tigers ML: -106
3-leg parlay at the listed prices: +536