Parlay · MLB

MLB Parlay Today: 3-Leg Parlay for Thursday, Sept. 24 (+425)

By Marisol Vega — Spent ten years grading tickets at a sportsbook. Marisol covers line movement, steam and closing-line value, and she writes the daily card.

Three games on Thursday's 12-game card line up the way I like for a parlay, and the common thread is pitching staffs running on fumes. Remember, a parlay needs every leg to win, so one bad inning anywhere kills the ticket.

Astros vs. Athletics, 9:40 p.m. ET

Pick: Astros/Athletics Over 11 (-115 at Fanatics)

Mason Barnett takes the ball for the Athletics, and his recent form is the whole case for runs. Over his last three starts he's allowed 14 earned runs in 10 innings, a 12.60 ERA, and his season line is a 7.16 ERA with a 1.75 WHIP. Even if Houston knocks him out early, the A's pen behind him is gassed, with Brady Basso, Luis Medina and Hogan Harris all at 45 pitches or more over the last three days, and that group already owns a 5.25 ERA, 30th in MLB.

Sutter Health Park plays about 15% above average for run scoring, and it's 83 degrees with the wind blowing out at first pitch. The honest concern is Houston's bats, just 3.3 runs per game over the last two weeks. Barnett's numbers say they'll get theirs anyway.

Rays vs. Yankees, 7:05 p.m. ET

Pick: New York Yankees ML (-148 at FanDuel)

Cam Schlittler gets the ball for the Yankees, and his season line is a 1.94 ERA with a 0.91 WHIP across 32 starts. He's been even better lately, 2 earned runs in 19 innings with 24 strikeouts over his last three. Ian Seymour comes in for Tampa with a 5.79 ERA over his last three starts, and the Rays pen behind him is short, with Mason Englert at 86 pitches over the last three days.

If this gets to the bullpens, the Yankees hold a 3.13 ERA, 2nd in MLB. The money agrees, 71% of it on New York. Tampa can hit righties, a .750 OPS that's 5th in MLB, so the Rays are live to keep it close even with the division locked up.

Padres vs. Dodgers, 10:10 p.m. ET

Pick: San Diego Padres +1.5 (-148 at BetRivers)

The Dodgers' bullpen is running on empty, and that's the door this bet walks through. Emmet Sheehan has thrown 93 pitches over the last three days, with Jack Dreyer and Blake Treinen also working, so anything short of a deep Tyler Glasnow start puts tired arms on the mound late. Glasnow himself has a 5.63 ERA over his last three starts, while Nick Pivetta counters with a 1.93 ERA in that same span.

San Diego is also the hottest lineup in baseball right now, 6.3 runs per game with an .868 OPS over the last two weeks, and their own pen sits 5th in MLB at 3.46. The cushion matters here, since a one-run loss still cashes. The Dodgers own a .768 OPS against righties, best in MLB, so Pivetta has no margin for error.

Parlay: Astros/Athletics Over 11 + New York Yankees ML + San Diego Padres +1.5 (+425 at the prices listed)

The Play

  • Houston Astros/Athletics OVER 11 Total Runs: -115
  • New York Yankees ML: -148
  • San Diego Padres +1.5: -148

3-leg parlay at the listed prices: +425

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