Parlay · NFL

NFL Week 4 Parlay: 3-Leg Parlay for Sunday, Oct. 4 (+644)

By Marisol Vega — Spent ten years grading tickets at a sportsbook. Marisol covers line movement, steam and closing-line value, and she writes the daily card.

Sun, Oct 4, 2026, 7:10 AM ET

Three legs, three different angles for Sunday. I'm taking a side in San Francisco, an under in Seattle and an over in Chicago, and each one leans on something the other two don't. A parlay needs every leg to win, so if one goes sideways the whole ticket does.

Broncos vs. 49ers, 4:25 p.m. ET

Pick: San Francisco 49ers -2.5 (-114 at BetRivers)

The ticket count says one thing and the money says it louder. 54% of the bets are on the 49ers, but 76% of the money is, which means the bigger wagers are landing on San Francisco laying the short number at home.

They're earning it on both sides. The 49ers are scoring 32.7 points per game, 2nd in the NFL, while allowing 16.7, 3rd in the league. Denver's run defense is giving up 5 yards per carry, 31st in the NFL, and San Francisco averages 4.4 a pop. George Kittle is questionable, and that's the one thing that could tighten this game up.

Chargers vs. Seahawks, 4:25 p.m. ET

Pick: Chargers/Seahawks Under 42.5 (-102 at DraftKings)

Los Angeles comes in scoring 14.7 points per game, 29th in the NFL, and now they get a Seattle defense allowing 16.7 a game, 4th in the league. That's a bad matchup for a team already struggling to finish drives.

The Chargers gain 5.9 yards per pass attempt and the Seahawks give up 4.4, best in the NFL. Seattle also allows 2.9 yards per carry, 2nd in the league, against a Chargers run game at 3.9. The risk is Seattle's own passing game, since the Chargers give up 7.1 yards per attempt, 25th in the NFL. If the Seahawks hit some shots, this could get away from the under.

Jets vs. Bears, 1 p.m. ET

Pick: Jets/Bears Over 43.5 (+100 at DraftKings)

Chicago runs it 4.8 yards a carry and 154 yards a game, and the Jets sit 19th against the run at 4.1 allowed. That sets up long drives and points for a Bears offense already scoring 29.7 per game, 5th in the NFL.

The money agrees, with 68% of it on the over against just 23% of the bets. Games involving these two have averaged 44.5 total points this season, right above this number. What could kill it is that both defenses have been respectable, the Bears 7th in scoring allowed and the Jets 11th, so if one of them controls the game early this stays under.

Parlay: San Francisco 49ers -2.5 + Chargers/Seahawks Under 42.5 + Jets/Bears Over 43.5 (+644 at the prices listed)

3-leg parlay at the listed prices: +644