Best Bets · MLB

Three plus-money underdogs the market is sleeping on Monday

By Marisol Vega — Spent a decade grading tickets before she wrote a word about them. Marisol follows the money: line moves, steam, and where the sharp side actually landed. She writes the daily card the way a bettor reads it.

Mon, Aug 10, 2026, 8:15 AM ET

How often does a team projected to win 40% of the time get priced as if they only win 27%? That's the gap we're looking at tonight, and it's not the only one.

Start with the Kansas City Royals at +258 against the Los Angeles Dodgers. The model projects a 40% win probability for the Royals, but the market implies just 27%. That's a 13.3% edge, the largest on the board. Yes, Tarik Skubal is on the mound for the Dodgers with a 2.81 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP, but Noah Cameron has been serviceable at 4.37 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. The Dodgers have lost eight of their last ten games, and the Royals' offense has a .312 xwOBA that isn't far off the Dodgers' .340 mark. The number tells on itself here: +258 is too high for a team with a projected win rate that high.

Next, the Athletics at +130 hosting the Tampa Bay Rays. Tampa Bay has won six straight and sits at 71-46, but Freddy Peralta has a 5.37 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP this season. Jacob Lopez has a 5.64 ERA but the model still projects the Athletics with a 53% win probability against a 42% implied probability from the market, an 11.5% edge. The Athletics are 47-71, but they've won two in a row and the Rays' bullpen has been taxed during that six-game streak. At plus-money, this is a fade of Peralta's underlying numbers, which show a .273 batting average against and a 5.5% barrel rate that hasn't translated into results.

Finally, the Los Angeles Angels at +101 against the Texas Rangers. The model gives the Angels a 59% win probability, yet the market implies 48%, an 11.3% edge. Reid Detmers has a 4.12 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP with 10.47 strikeouts per nine, while MacKenzie Gore has a 4.55 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. The Angels are 45-73 but have a run differential of -91, which is bad, but the model sees value in Detmers outperforming Gore tonight. The Rangers are 59-59 with a -33 run differential, hardly a powerhouse. Follow the money, not the crowd on this one.

Three underdogs with model edges of at least 11%. Respect the close, but tonight the close is the opening number.

The numbers are what they are, the market hasn't caught up to these projections yet.