Best Bets · MLB

Three underdogs worth backing on Sunday's MLB board

By Marisol Vega — Spent a decade grading tickets before she wrote a word about them. Marisol follows the money: line moves, steam, and where the sharp side actually landed. She writes the daily card the way a bettor reads it.

Sun, Aug 9, 2026, 8:16 AM ET

What does the market see that the public doesn't on a Sunday afternoon with eight games on the board? Follow the money, not the crowd, the projection models are lighting up three underdogs with real edges, and the prices haven't caught up yet.

Start in Miami, where the Los Angeles Angels send Grayson Rodriguez to the mound with a 7.24 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP over 51 innings this season. Opponents are hitting .292 against him, and his Statcast numbers are ugly: an 11.5 percent barrel rate and a 49.7 percent hard-hit rate. The Miami Marlins counter with Ryan Gusto, who owns a 4.80 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP but has only 45 innings of work. The Marlins' offense sits at a .728 OPS and 4.34 runs per game, and the projection gives Miami a 71 percent win probability against a market-implied 58 percent. That's a 13.2 percent edge, the highest on the slate, at a price of -142.

Over in Kansas City, the Chicago Cubs are laying -152 on the road despite a 68-50 record and a +99 run differential. The Cubs' lineup is dangerous, a .752 OPS and 5.12 runs per game, but they face Royals right-hander Randy Dobnak, who has a 1.16 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP over 31 innings with a .212 batting average against. I'll be the first to admit I'm usually skeptical of a pitcher with a 4.35 K/9, but Dobnak's 1.16 ERA over 31 innings demands attention. The Royals are getting +142, and the projection sees a 53 percent win probability versus 41 percent implied, a 12.7 percent edge. The number tells on itself here.

The Washington Nationals also profile as a live dog at +101 against the Cincinnati Reds. Brad Lord takes the hill with a 3.81 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP, holding opponents to a .224 batting average. The Nationals' offense has been explosive, a .766 OPS, 5.34 runs per game, and 170 home runs, while Reds starter Brady Singer sits at a 4.67 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP with a 5-10 record. The projection gives Washington a 59 percent win probability against a 49 percent implied probability, a 10.4 percent edge. Respect the close, this line should be tighter.

Three underdogs, three projection edges above 10 percent. The market is sleeping on these spots, but the numbers don't lie.

Take the prices while they're still soft. The market will catch up, but not before first pitch.