Over/Under Picks · NCAAF

College Football Week 6 Over/Under Picks: 3 Totals for Saturday, Oct. 10

By Everett Kline — Former actuary who handicaps like one. Everett only backs angles that hold up over a real sample, and every result goes on his record.

Sat, Oct 10, 2026, 7:19 AM ET

Forty-six games on the Saturday board and I keep landing on the same side: unders. All three of my plays today have seen the total drop from the opener and all three kick off with rain in the forecast. That combination is where I want to live on a card this size.

Old Dominion vs. App State, 1 p.m. ET

Pick: Old Dominion/App State Under 47.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

This total opened at 51 and it's been bet down to 47.5, and I don't think the move is finished telling us something. The splits are about as one-sided as you'll see: 65% of bets and 96% of the money are on the under. When nearly all the money lands on one side of a total, I want to be on that side too.

The setting backs it up. Kidd Brewer Stadium is looking at 54 degrees, wind around 20 mph and a 70% chance of rain, which is rough weather for any offense and worse for a bad one. Old Dominion is scoring 19.8 points per game, 117th of 138 FBS teams, and the Monarchs average just 3 yards per carry and 107.6 rushing yards a game. What worries me is that games involving these two have averaged 54.7 total points this season, well above this number. I'm betting the weather and that anemic Monarchs offense drag this one under the season norm.

Syracuse vs. Virginia, 7:30 p.m. ET

Pick: Syracuse/Virginia Under 49.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

The money is screaming under here: 54% of bets but 89% of the cash on the under, and the total has dipped from 50.5 to 49.5. That gap between tickets and money tells me the bigger, sharper wagers are on the low side, and I agree with them.

Virginia's defense is the foundation of the play. The Cavaliers are allowing 18 points per game, 36th in the FBS, and they're giving up just 5.7 yards per pass attempt, 12th in the country. Syracuse can throw it a little, gaining 7.4 yards per attempt, but that's a real strength-on-strength spot and I'd trust the defense at home. Scott Stadium also has a 70% chance of rain at kickoff, and the Cavaliers convert only 33.8% of their third downs, 114th in the FBS, so their own offense stalls plenty. The honest concern: games involving these two have averaged 54.8 total points this season. The number has come down for a reason, and I'm riding with it.

James Madison vs. Georgia Southern, 7:30 p.m. ET

Pick: James Madison/Georgia Southern Under 51.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Another total on the move: this one opened at 54.5 and now sits at 51.5, a full three points of under money baked in. I think there's still room. James Madison's defense is allowing 13.2 points per game, 10th in the FBS, and that's the best unit on any field in this article.

Georgia Southern doesn't have an obvious way to crack it. The Eagles gain 6.6 yards per pass attempt against a Dukes defense allowing 6.3 (38th in the FBS), and on the ground they average 4.3 yards per carry against a front giving up just 2.7, 14th in the country. Add a 70% chance of rain at Allen E. Paulson Stadium and an Eagles offense scoring 24.8 points per game, and the path to points is narrow. If something goes wrong, it's James Madison's own offense doing it, since the Dukes are scoring 44.8 per game, 7th in the FBS. I'd need Georgia Southern to contribute its share to lose this bet, and I don't see it.