Over/Under Picks · NCAAF

College Football Week 5 Over/Under Picks: 3 Totals for Saturday, Oct. 3

By Everett Kline — Former actuary who handicaps like one. Everett only backs angles that hold up over a real sample, and every result goes on his record.

Sat, Oct 3, 2026, 7:28 AM ET

Fifty-one games on the board today, first kick at 11 a.m. ET, and the totals market is where I keep finding numbers I disagree with. One of these is an over where the scoring environment has been far above the posted number all season, and two are unders where the line has already dropped and I think it still hasn't dropped enough.

Louisville vs. NC State, 3:30 p.m. ET

Pick: Louisville/NC State Over 57.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

These two teams have played in games averaging 66.7 total points this season, and the number here is 57.5. That's a gap of more than a touchdown, and it's backed by what both offenses actually do. Louisville is scoring 41.3 points per game through 4 games, 20th in the FBS, and NC State is right there too at 38.3 per game, 33rd in the country.

The matchup itself points up as well. The Cardinals gain 10.2 yards per pass attempt against a Wolfpack defense giving up 7.4 per attempt, and NC State runs for 219 yards per game at 5.6 per carry against a Louisville front that's middle of the pack against the run. Louisville's defense is also allowing 28.8 points per game, 110th of 138 FBS teams, so the Wolfpack should hold up their end. What gives me pause is the total opening at 60.5 and dropping to 57.5, but even at the opener these teams' averages cleared it. I like the over at the better number.

San José State vs. Hawai'i, 11:59 p.m. ET

Pick: San José State/Hawai'i Under 50.5 (-108 at DraftKings)

This total opened at 52.5 and has been bet down to 50.5, and I think the move is justified and then some. Hawai'i is scoring 18 points per game through 4 games, 129th of 138 FBS teams, and there's little in this matchup that suggests a breakout. The Rainbow Warriors gain just 5.6 yards per pass attempt and average 3.2 yards per carry for 83.3 rushing yards per game.

San José State isn't going to carry the scoring load either, putting up 23.3 points per game. Then there's the setting at Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex, where the kickoff forecast calls for 77 degrees with wind around 19 mph, which is real wind for a passing game to deal with in a late-night start. The Spartans are also -3 in turnover margin through 4 games, so I'm not counting on short fields. The one thing that nags at me is that 70% of bets are already on the under, so I'm with the crowd here, but the money at 16% tells me the bigger tickets haven't followed. I'd still play the under.

Wyoming vs. North Dakota State, 3:30 p.m. ET

Pick: Wyoming/North Dakota State Under 44.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

The market has already taken this one down from 47.5 to 44.5, and I still think there's room. Wyoming is scoring 17.8 points per game through 4 games, 132nd of 138 FBS teams, and now runs into a North Dakota State defense allowing 12.3 points per game, 11th in the FBS. The Cowboys gain 6.7 yards per pass attempt against a Bison secondary giving up 6.1 per attempt, 39th in the country, so easy yards through the air aren't coming.

Games involving these two teams have averaged 42.8 total points this season, which sits under this number even after the drop. Wyoming's defense allowing 20.5 points per game is respectable enough to keep the Bison from running away with it, and the Cowboys being -6 in turnover margin suggests a team that stalls out rather than one that trades scores. The honest concern is that North Dakota State scores 35 points per game, so if the Bison get anywhere near that themselves, Wyoming has to contribute almost nothing for this to cash. Given how the Cowboys' offense has looked, I'm willing to take that side of it.