Over/Under Picks · NCAAF

Kline's 3 Best College Football Week 7 Totals for Saturday

By Everett Kline — Former actuary who handicaps like one. Everett only backs angles that hold up over a real sample, and every result goes on his record.

Sat, Oct 17, 2026, 7:08 AM ET

I am sticking with the over on all three of my favorite totals today, because the board is giving us numbers that do not match the scoring these teams produce. Two of these games feature defenses that rank near the bottom of the FBS, and the third has two offenses averaging well over 30 points a game. When the totals sit in the mid 50s and the teams involved are averaging 62 or more combined, I see room to play.

Louisville vs. Syracuse, 7:30 p.m. ET

Pick: Louisville/Syracuse Over 55.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

Games involving Louisville and Syracuse have averaged 62 total points this season, and the total here is 55.5. That gap is hard to ignore. The Cardinals are scoring 39.5 points per game through 6 games, 18th in the FBS, and they do a lot of that damage on the ground with 6.3 yards per carry and 231.7 rushing yards per game. Syracuse sits near the middle in run defense at 4.3 yards per carry allowed, so Louisville should move the ball.

The Orange are scoring 32.8 points per game themselves, and the Cardinals defense is allowing 27.7. Both teams can score, and neither defense has been good enough to slow the other down consistently. The only thing that gives me pause is the total dropping from 56.5 to 55.5, but I think the number has come down too far.

Louisiana Tech vs. UL Monroe, 8 p.m. ET

Pick: Louisiana Tech/UL Monroe Over 55.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

UL Monroe's defense is allowing 44.6 points per game, dead last in the FBS at 138th of 138 teams. That is the starting point here. Louisiana Tech gains 8 yards per pass attempt, and the Warhawks are giving up 9.3 per attempt, 135th in the country. The Bulldogs also average 4.5 yards per carry on the ground, and UL Monroe allows 5.7, which ranks 133rd.

Games involving these two teams have averaged 66.6 total points this season, well above the 55.5 on the board. Louisiana Tech's own defense is allowing 29.4 points per game, so the Warhawks should contribute their share. The total has actually moved up from 54.5 to 55.5, which tells you where the money has gone. What worries me a little is that 57% of the bets are on the over but only 5% of the money, so the bigger wagers are on the under. I still think the number is too low given how bad this Warhawks defense has been.

Cincinnati vs. West Virginia, 12 p.m. ET

Pick: Cincinnati/West Virginia Over 63.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

Cincinnati runs the ball at 5.9 yards per carry and 230.8 rushing yards per game, and West Virginia allows 4.6 yards per carry, which puts them near the middle of the FBS in run defense. That is a mismatch in the Bearcats' favor. West Virginia's defense overall is allowing 32.7 points per game, 126th of 138 FBS teams, and they are giving up 9.7 yards per pass attempt, 137th in the country.

The Mountaineers can score too, putting up 36.3 points per game through 6 games, 33rd in the FBS. They convert 50% of their third downs, 20th in the nation, so they sustain drives and keep the scoring going. The total has climbed from 62 to 63.5, and the combined average in games involving these teams is 63, right at the number. That is the risk. You are laying the higher number with very little margin. But with Cincinnati's ground game against this Mountaineers defense, I think they push past it.