Game Preview · NFL

Bills vs. Rams Prediction and Pick: Deane's Best Bet for Monday

By Wyatt Deane — Spent nine seasons breaking down All-22 film for a college staff. Wyatt covers the NFL and college football through matchups and personnel.

Mon, Oct 12, 2026, 10:31 AM ET

One NFL game on Monday night, and it's a good one. The Buffalo Bills go to Los Angeles to face the Rams at 8:15 p.m. ET, with Buffalo sitting at 3-1 and playing some of the best offensive football in the league through four weeks. This game comes down to whether the Rams defense can hold up against a Bills offense that has been the best scoring unit in football. I don't think it does enough to justify the number.

The Pick

Pick: Buffalo Bills +3.5 (-115 at FanDuel)

The Bills are scoring 31.8 points per game through 4 games, best in the NFL, and that is the whole case for taking the points. When the best scoring offense in the league is getting more than a field goal, I want to be on that side. Buffalo has a +20 point differential and has already won on the road this season, so the spot doesn't scare me.

The way they move the ball makes it even better. The Bills are converting 54.4% of their third downs, also first in the NFL, which means drives don't die and the defense stays on the sideline. In the red zone they score touchdowns 73.3% of the time, so those long drives end in sevens instead of threes. Against a Rams team that is -5 in turnover margin through 4 games, Buffalo's ability to finish drives matters even more.

The market agrees. The betting splits show 60% of the bets and 72% of the money on the Bills, so the heavier side of the money is already here. When the money lines up with the best offense in football getting points, I don't overthink it.

What worries me is the Bills defense, which is allowing 26.8 points per game, 25th in the NFL. If Buffalo gives up points the way it has through four weeks, this could stay close enough that the game comes down to the final drive. But with how the Bills control third down and finish in the red zone, I'd rather have the better offense and the points in a game that should be tight all night.

Prop Pick: James Cook

Pick: James Cook Over 74.5 Rushing Yards (-111 at DraftKings)

James Cook is averaging 105.3 rushing yards per game this season, and his game logs back it up: 57, 135, 154 and 75 yards through four weeks. He's gone over 74.5 rushing yards in 6 of his last 10 games, and last season he averaged 93.9 per game and cleared this number in 12 of 19. The volume is steady too, with carry counts of 24, 13, 21, 24 and 12 over his last five.

The honest concern is the matchup. The Rams are allowing 81.8 yards per game to opposing running backs, the 2nd-fewest in the league. But Cook's workload and the way Buffalo leans on him give him a real path to 75 even against a good front.