Game Preview · NCAAF
South Alabama vs. Arkansas State Odds, Prediction and Pick for Week 6
By Wyatt Deane — Spent nine seasons breaking down All-22 film for a college staff. Wyatt covers the NFL and college football through matchups and personnel.
South Alabama heads to Arkansas State on Thursday night for a 7:30 p.m. ET kickoff in one of four College Football games on the Week 6 slate. Both defenses have had trouble holding teams down all season, and that's where this game gets decided. The total is where I want to be, and the way this number has moved tells you the market sees it the same way.
The Pick
Pick: South Alabama/Arkansas State Over 60.5 (-105 at DraftKings)
This total opened at 58.5 and has already climbed to 60.5, and I think there's still room for it to go higher. When a number moves two full points in a college game, it usually means somebody found an edge. In this case, it's two offenses that can move the ball against two defenses that haven't stopped anybody consistently.
Start with South Alabama's passing game against this Arkansas State secondary. The Jaguars gain 8.7 yards per pass attempt, and the Red Wolves are giving up 8.3 per attempt, which ranks 125th of 138 FBS teams. That's a bad matchup for the home team, and it gets worse when you look at what South Alabama does with those opportunities. The Jaguars are scoring 35.4 points per game through 5 games, so they're finishing drives and putting points on the board.
On the other side, Arkansas State's run game should have room to work. The Red Wolves average 4.6 yards per carry and 139.8 rushing yards per game, and the Jaguars allow 6.2 yards per carry, which is 137th of 138 FBS teams in run defense. South Alabama's defense overall is allowing 31.6 points per game, 119th in the country. You don't need Arkansas State to be explosive through the air if they can run it at that clip and keep drives alive.
Both teams have clear paths to points here, and I don't see either defense getting enough stops to keep this under the total.
The Play
- South Alabama Jaguars/Arkansas State Red Wolves OVER 60.5 Total Points: -105