Game Preview · NFL

Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Prediction, Odds and Pick for Thursday, Oct. 8

By Wyatt Deane — Spent nine seasons breaking down All-22 film for a college staff. Wyatt covers the NFL and college football through matchups and personnel.

Thu, Oct 8, 2026, 7:29 AM ET

The Buccaneers head to Dallas for a Thursday night game against the Cowboys, and this one has all the pieces of a shootout. Dallas is putting up 30.5 points a game and giving up 28. Tampa Bay's defense can stop the run, but the Cowboys don't need to run to score. The total sits at 47.5, and the money says that's too low.

The Pick

Pick: Buccaneers/Cowboys Over 47.5 (-110 at BetRivers)

Ninety percent of the money on this total is on the over, and it's not hard to see why. Only 36% of the bets are on that side, so the bigger tickets are pointing one way. When the money splits that far from the ticket count, it's worth paying attention.

Dallas is scoring 30.5 points per game through four weeks, second in the NFL. They're converting 45.5% of their third downs, fifth best in the league, and when they get in the red zone they finish, scoring touchdowns on 76.5% of those trips. This is an offense that stays on the field and cashes in when it matters. The Cowboys don't run it well, just 3.4 yards a carry, but they haven't needed to.

The other side of the ball is the problem for Dallas. The Cowboys are allowing 28 points per game, 28th in the league. Tampa Bay should get theirs against a defense that's been giving up points all season. Games involving these two teams have averaged 50.8 total points this year, and the number here is 47.5. That's a gap worth betting on.

The concern is Tampa Bay's red zone offense. The Buccaneers are scoring touchdowns just 41.7% of the time in the red zone, and if they're settling for field goals instead of finishing drives, this game could stay under even with both teams moving the ball. But with Dallas scoring at this rate and their defense giving it right back, I like the points to pile up.