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Chiefs vs. Seahawks Prediction, Odds and Pick for Sunday, Oct. 25

By Wyatt Deane — Spent nine seasons breaking down All-22 film for a college staff. Wyatt covers the NFL and college football through matchups and personnel.

Sun, Oct 25, 2026, 7:14 AM ET

Sunday night in Seattle, the 5-0 Chiefs take the field as a field goal underdog against the Seahawks. Kansas City has outscored opponents by 57 points through five games and won both of its road games. This one comes down to a simple question: can Seattle's offense move the ball on a defense allowing 16.6 points per game. I don't think it happens often enough.

The Pick

Pick: Kansas City Chiefs +3 (-115 at DraftKings)

The Chiefs defense is allowing 16.6 points per game, 2nd in the NFL, and that is where this bet starts. Seattle's offense has real problems sustaining drives. The Seahawks are converting 32% of their third downs, 28th in the league, and a team that can't stay on the field doesn't beat a defense this good by enough to cover a field goal.

The trenches tilt the same direction. Seattle averages 3.7 yards per carry and 99.2 rushing yards per game, and now that run game meets a Chiefs front allowing 3.2 yards per carry, 2nd in the NFL. If the Seahawks can't run it and can't convert third downs, their drives are going to die all night. That keeps this game in the teens or low 20s on their side, and that's exactly the kind of game where you want the three points in your pocket.

Kansas City's offense does its part too. The Chiefs are scoring 28 points per game, 5th in the NFL, and they're +5 in turnover margin through five games. A team that scores, protects the ball and takes it away is a team that stays in every game it plays. That's all an underdog needs to do.

The honest concern is Seattle's defense, which is allowing 20.3 points per game, 5th in the league, so Kansas City's offense won't have it easy either. But I don't need the Chiefs to light it up. I need them to win or lose by fewer than 3, and the betting splits suggest the market is sleeping on them, with only 44% of bets and 41% of the money on the Chiefs. An unbeaten team with the best defense on the field getting points in primetime, I'll take that every week.