Top 25 Picks · NCAAF

College Football Top 25 Picks: 4 Best Bets for Week 8

By Wyatt Deane — Spent nine seasons breaking down All-22 film for a college staff. Wyatt covers the NFL and college football through matchups and personnel.

Sat, Oct 24, 2026, 7:04 AM ET

Nineteen AP Top 25 teams are in action today, and the slate gives us plenty of spots where the better team is also the better bet. I'm laying points with four ranked favorites, starting at noon in the SEC and running through the evening out west.

LSU vs. Auburn, 12 p.m. ET

Pick: LSU Tigers -7 (-115 at DraftKings)

The money is telling you something in this one. LSU is drawing 51% of the bets but 76% of the money on the spread, which means the bigger, sharper wagers are landing on the road favorite. When the handle runs that far ahead of the ticket count, I pay attention.

The Tigers back it up on the field. They're scoring 40.4 points per game, 8th in the FBS, and they rank 6th nationally in SP+. The defense is allowing 15.9 points per game, 17th in the country, and they're holding opponents to 5.9 yards per pass attempt, 14th in the FBS. That's a strong profile on both sides of the ball against an Auburn squad that sits 40th in SP+.

Auburn at home is the risk, and their defense allowing 21.8 points per game could keep this closer than it should be if LSU sleepwalks. I don't see it. The gap in efficiency is too wide.

California vs. SMU, 12 p.m. ET

Pick: SMU Mustangs -18.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

This line opened at SMU -16.5 and it's been bet up to -18.5, a full two points of movement toward the Mustangs. The market keeps pushing this number higher, and I think it's still short.

SMU ranks 24th in SP+ and matches up well where it matters. Cal gains 6.7 yards per pass attempt, but the Mustangs are giving up just 5.8 per attempt, 12th in the FBS, so the Golden Bears will have a hard time throwing it. On the other side, Cal's defense is allowing 27.7 points per game and their offense is scoring just 23.9 per game through seven. That's a team that struggles on both sides of the ball.

What gives me pause is the splits: 59% of the bets are on SMU but only 19% of the money, which means the big wagers are on Cal. I'm betting the line move over the splits here, but it's worth knowing the smart money isn't unanimous.

Iowa vs. Minnesota, 3:30 p.m. ET

Pick: Iowa Hawkeyes -7.5 (-105 at DraftKings)

Minnesota can't run the ball, and Iowa doesn't let anybody run the ball. The Golden Gophers average 3.7 yards per carry and 104.8 rushing yards per game, while the Hawkeyes allow 2.5 yards per carry, 5th in the FBS in run defense. When a one-dimensional offense meets a defense built to erase that one dimension, the game gets ugly fast.

Iowa's defense is allowing 14.5 points per game, 9th in the country, and the Hawkeyes rank 20th in SP+. They're 5-1, 2-0 on the road, and the line has moved from -7 to -7.5, so the market agrees this number is short. Minnesota will need to win through the air, and that's a real concern because Iowa gains 7 yards per pass attempt while the Gophers give up 6.4 per attempt, 39th in the FBS, so the Hawkeyes can actually throw it too.

The splits lean the other way, with 57% of bets but just 36% of the money on Iowa, meaning bigger money is on the home dog. I'll still lay it. This game is won in the trenches, and that's Iowa's game.

Boise State vs. Washington State, 6 p.m. ET

Pick: Boise State Broncos -14.5 (-105 at DraftKings)

Washington State ranks 117th in SP+. Boise State is a ranked team, and the Cougars are one of the weakest teams in the country by the opponent-adjusted numbers.

The Broncos average 5.4 yards per carry and 234.5 rushing yards per game, and while Washington State's run defense is middle of the pack at 4.7 yards per carry allowed, the Cougars can't score enough to make that matter. They're putting up 20.1 points per game, 121st of 138 FBS teams, and they convert just 29.5% of their third downs, 134th in the country. They're also -7 in turnover margin through seven games, which is how short fields and blowouts happen.

The betting public and the money are aligned here, with 64% of bets and 94% of the money on Boise State. When the handle is that lopsided, the bigger wagers are all landing on the same side, and I'm landing there too.