Game Preview · NCAAF
Houston vs. Utah Prediction, Odds and Pick for Saturday, Oct. 24
By Wyatt Deane — Spent nine seasons breaking down All-22 film for a college staff. Wyatt covers the NFL and college football through matchups and personnel.
The late game Saturday is a good one: No. 14 Houston goes to Utah for a 10:15 p.m. ET kick, and the Utes are laying 6.5 at home. Both teams can score, so this comes down to whether Houston's offense can keep pace on the road against a Utah defense that doesn't give much away. I don't think it does, and I'm laying the points.
The Pick
Pick: Utah Utes -6.5 (-120 at DraftKings)
The money has made up its mind on this one. Sixty-five percent of the bets and 89% of the money are on the Utes, and when the split leans that hard toward the bigger tickets, I pay attention. That's not a casual crowd nudging a line. That's people who bet serious money deciding Utah by a touchdown is the right side.
The offense backs it up. Utah is scoring 40.2 points per game through six games, ninth in the FBS, and they convert 53.2% of their third downs, which is eighth in the country. That third-down number is what covers spreads. It means long drives, a tired opposing defense, and a fourth quarter where the other team is chasing. The Utes also gain 8.4 yards per pass attempt against a Houston defense giving up 7.8 per attempt, so the passing game should move the ball all night.
The other side of the ball is just as strong. Utah allows 14.8 points per game, 12th in the FBS, and sits 10th nationally in SP+, the opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Houston is no slouch at 18th in SP+, and the Cougars score 39.3 points per game themselves, so this isn't a mismatch on paper. But the gap between 10th and 18th, at home, in a late kick, is roughly what this number says it is.
What worries me is Houston's offense is good enough to keep this inside a touchdown if Utah has an off night throwing it. The Cougars didn't get to 14th in the country by accident. But the Utes have the better team, the better defense, the home field and the sharp money, and that's enough for me to lay the 6.5.
The Play
- Utah Utes -6.5: -120