Game Preview · NCAAF

NC State vs. Stanford Prediction and Pick: Deane's Best Bet for Friday

By Wyatt Deane — Spent nine seasons breaking down All-22 film for a college staff. Wyatt covers the NFL and college football through matchups and personnel.

Fri, Oct 23, 2026, 7:22 AM ET

NC State heads out west to face Stanford at 10:30 p.m. ET on Friday night, the late game on a five-game Week 8 slate. The Wolfpack bring a real offense into this one, and the Cardinal bring a defense that has been giving points away all season. This game comes down to whether Stanford can slow anybody down, and so far nothing says they can.

The Pick

Pick: NC State/Stanford Over 55.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Stanford's defense is the reason to bet points in this game. The Cardinal are allowing 36.6 points per game, which ranks 133rd of 138 FBS teams. You do not need NC State to be great on offense for this total to get home. You just need the Wolfpack to be functional, and they have been more than that.

The matchup on the ground is where this gets lopsided. NC State averages 4.5 yards per carry and 168.5 rushing yards per game, and Stanford allows 5.5 yards per carry, 132nd of 138 FBS teams in run defense. That is a bad run defense against a team that wants to run it. Sustained drives and short fields follow from that.

The Wolfpack are scoring 33 points per game through 6 games, and they convert 51.7% of their third downs, 12th in the FBS. Long drives keep the pressure on a defense that already cannot get off the field. Games involving these two teams have averaged 57.8 total points this season, and this total is 55.5.

The concern is Stanford's offense, which is scoring 18.3 points per game through 7 games, 127th of 138 FBS teams. If the Cardinal cannot hold up their end, NC State has to do most of the work. But the Wolfpack defense is allowing 27.7 points per game, so even a weak Stanford offense should find some points. I like the over.