Over/Under Picks · NCAAF

College Football Week 8 Over/Under Picks: 3 Totals for Saturday, Oct. 24

By Everett Kline — Former actuary who handicaps like one. Everett only backs angles that hold up over a real sample, and every result goes on his record.

Sat, Oct 24, 2026, 7:06 AM ET

Forty-four games on the board today, and the totals market is where I see the cleanest value. All three of my plays are unders, and none of them are guesses. Each one has either a defense that ranks near the top of the FBS, an offense that can't move the ball, or a line that already tells you which way the smart money is leaning.

Baylor vs. Kansas, 1 p.m. ET

Pick: Baylor/Kansas Under 53.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Baylor's defense is the whole argument here. The Bears are allowing 14.7 points per game, 10th in the FBS, and that's not a small sample fluke. Kansas can score, sure, 32 points per game through 6 games, but Baylor's defense has been stingy enough to keep games low. The Bears gain 6.7 yards per pass attempt, and the Jayhawks are giving up 6.8 per attempt, so neither side has a big edge through the air.

The total opened at 54.5 and has already dropped to 53.5, which tells you the early money agrees with the read. Games involving these two teams have averaged 50.4 total points this season, more than a field goal under the current number. What worries me is Kansas has enough offensive firepower to turn this into a shootout if Baylor's defense has an off day, but I trust a unit that's been this consistent through six weeks.

San José State vs. Nevada, 5 p.m. ET

Pick: San José State/Nevada Under 46.5 (-108 at DraftKings)

San José State's offense is the reason this number is too high. The Spartans are scoring 21.4 points per game through 7 games, 112th out of 138 FBS teams, and they're facing a Nevada defense allowing 23.5 points per game. That's a bad offense going against a competent defense, which is exactly what you want when betting an under.

Nevada's offense isn't going to pick up the slack. The Wolf Pack gain just 6.2 yards per pass attempt, and while the Spartans give up 6.9 per attempt, San José State's defense is allowing only 21.7 points per game. Games involving these two teams have averaged 46.3 total points this season, right at the number. The total opened at 46 and has moved up to 46.5, which is the one thing that cuts against me here, but I'll take the extra half point and trust the Spartans' inability to score.

North Dakota State vs. New Mexico, 10 p.m. ET

Pick: North Dakota State/New Mexico Under 40.5 (-108 at DraftKings)

This total opened at 46.5 and has been bet down six full points to 40.5, and it's not hard to see why. New Mexico's defense is allowing 10.5 points per game, best in the FBS. North Dakota State's defense is right behind at 11.3 points per game, second in the country. When you have two defenses ranked first and second in the FBS meeting in a night game, the under is the only side that makes sense.

The weather helps too. Kickoff forecast at University Stadium calls for 57 degrees with wind around 15 mph, which will affect the kicking game and any deep passing. North Dakota State wants to run the ball, averaging 4.3 yards per carry and 174.7 rushing yards per game, but New Mexico allows just 3 yards per carry, 17th in the FBS in run defense. The risk is obvious: New Mexico is scoring 39.7 points per game through 6 games, 11th in the FBS, and games involving these teams have averaged 45.5 total points. But that line move tells you the market has already accounted for the Lobos' offense, and I'm siding with the defenses.