Over/Under Picks · NBA

Kline's 3 Best NBA Totals for Monday

By Everett Kline — Former actuary who handicaps like one. Everett only backs angles that hold up over a real sample, and every result goes on his record.

Mon, Nov 2, 2026, 7:28 AM ET

Fifteen games on the Monday card, and the totals are where I see the cleaner reads. The three I like are all unders, and they all come back to the same thing: teams that don't score much, playing slower than the league average, with the market already leaning that way. It's early in the season, so the samples are small, but the numbers line up.

Nets vs. Knicks, 7:30 p.m. ET

Pick: Nets/Knicks Under 221.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

The money is already on the under here, and I think it's right. Seventy-four percent of bets and 79% of the money are on the under, and the total has already dropped from 222.5 to 221.5. That's a market telling you something.

The Knicks are scoring 107 points per game, 27th in the NBA, and the Nets aren't much better at 108.2, 25th. Games involving these two have averaged 219.5 total points this season, which is under this number. The Knicks also defend, allowing 107.7 points per game, the 6th-fewest in the league. What worries me is the Nets' defense, which has allowed 116 points per game, the 11th-most in the NBA. If Brooklyn can't get stops, this could get loose. But with both offenses near the bottom of the league, I like the under.

Wizards vs. Magic, 7:30 p.m. ET

Pick: Wizards/Magic Under 224.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Bettors are hammering the under in this one, with 75% of the money on that side despite only 56% of the bets. That's sharp action, and it's pushed the total down from 225.5 to 224.5. I'm following it.

These teams averaged 101.5 possessions per game between them this season, slower than the league average of 103. The Magic are scoring just 107.7 points per game, 26th in the NBA, and they'll be without Paolo Banchero, who's averaged 33.8 minutes a night. That's a big piece of their offense gone. Games involving these teams have averaged 222.3 total points, under this number. The risk is Orlando's defense, which has allowed 116.7 points per game, the 8th-most in the league. If the Wizards push pace, this could sneak over. But the setup points under.

Pistons vs. Hornets, 7:30 p.m. ET

Pick: Pistons/Hornets Under 210.5 (-105 at DraftKings)

This is the slowest game on the card. These teams averaged 99.3 possessions per game between them this season, well below the league average of 103. When two teams crawl like that, the total has to be low, and this one still isn't low enough for me.

The Hornets are scoring 98.3 points per game, dead last in the NBA, and they'll be without Kon Knueppel, who's averaged 31.4 minutes. The Pistons are allowing just 101.8 points per game, the fewest in the league, and Charlotte's defense has been solid too, giving up 106.4, the 4th-fewest. Games involving these teams have averaged 208.2 total points, under this number. The concern is the total has actually moved up from 209.5 to 210.5, and only 36% of bets are on the under. But the pace and the scoring numbers are too strong to ignore.