Best Bets · NCAAF

College Football Week 6 Best Bets: 3 Picks for Friday

By Marisol Vega — Spent ten years grading tickets at a sportsbook. Marisol covers line movement, steam and closing-line value, and she writes the daily card.

Fri, Oct 9, 2026, 7:15 AM ET

Friday night lights up Week 6 with a five-game slate that starts at 7 p.m. ET and stretches well past midnight. The card features a high-profile ACC clash and a ranked team in action, and I've found edges in the efficiency numbers and the betting splits. My three best bets for the evening include a high-scoring affair in Louisville, a ranked team laying points at home, and a defensive struggle in the late window.

Florida State vs. Louisville, 7 p.m. ET

Pick: Florida State/Louisville Over 59.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

The money is already pouring in on the over for this ACC matchup, and I'm following it. Right now, 89% of the money is on the over despite only 56% of the bets landing there, which suggests the sharper side of the market expects a track meet. Louisville has been an offensive machine through five games, putting up 38.6 points per contest, but their defense has been a turnstile, allowing 29.2 points per game.

Florida State is more than capable of exploiting that defensive weakness. The Seminoles are gaining 9.5 yards per pass attempt, and they're facing a Cardinals secondary that is surrendering 8 yards per attempt, ranking 114th in the country. When you combine that with Louisville's scoring ability, you get two teams whose games have averaged 61.3 total points this season.

The only real concern here is the Florida State defense, which has been respectable by allowing just 21.6 points per game. If they manage to completely shut down the Louisville attack, the burden falls entirely on the Seminoles to carry the scoring load. I don't see that happening against a Cardinals offense that ranks 23rd nationally in scoring.

Iowa State vs. BYU, 10:15 p.m. ET

Pick: BYU Cougars -10.5 (-108 at DraftKings)

BYU is the superior team by almost every efficiency metric, and that's why I'm comfortable laying the double digits. The Cougars rank 17th nationally in SP+, an opponent-adjusted rating that highlights how much better they've been than the average team. They're backing that up with a defense that is allowing just 14.3 points per game, good for 18th in the FBS.

The real mismatch happens on the ground. BYU is averaging 6.1 yards per carry and 235.5 rushing yards per game, while Iowa State sits near the middle of the pack in run defense by allowing 4.2 yards per carry. When you pair that rushing attack with a third-down conversion rate of 57.4%, the Cougars should be able to sustain long drives and keep the Cyclones' offense off the field.

What worries me is the market movement, as the line has ticked down from an opener of -11 to -10.5. Additionally, while 59% of the bets are on BYU, only 4% of the money is backing them, which usually indicates professional interest in the underdog. Despite that, the No. 8 team in the country has too many statistical advantages to ignore at home.

Washington State vs. Utah State, 9 p.m. ET

Pick: Washington State/Utah State Under 43.5 (-105 at DraftKings)

Utah State has struggled to find the end zone all season, and I don't expect that to change against Washington State. The Aggies are scoring a dismal 14 points per game, ranking 136th out of 138 FBS teams. Their inability to move the ball consistently makes it very difficult to reach a total in the mid-40s unless the game turns into a turnover-fueled shootout.

Washington State isn't exactly an offensive juggernaut either. The Cougars are averaging just 19 points per game and are converting a measly 27.1% of their third downs, which ranks 133rd of 138 FBS teams. When these two teams take the field, points have been at a premium, with their games averaging just 41.5 total points this season.

The risk to the under is that both defenses have been generous, with each allowing 25 points per game. If either team can find a rhythm early, we could see a higher score than anticipated. However, given how poorly both offenses have performed on a per-play basis, I'm betting on a low-scoring grind that stays well under the number.