Best Bets · NCAAF

College Football Week 7 Best Bets: 2 Picks for Friday

By Wyatt Deane — Spent nine seasons breaking down All-22 film for a college staff. Wyatt covers the NFL and college football through matchups and personnel.

Fri, Oct 16, 2026, 7:21 AM ET

Three games on the Friday card, starting at 7:30 p.m. ET, and two of them give us something to work with. I'm laying a touchdown with a team that runs it down your throat, and I'm grabbing points with a dog that should move the ball all night.

Memphis vs. Tulane, 7:30 p.m. ET

Pick: Memphis Tigers -7 (-108 at DraftKings)

The money has made up its mind on this one. 63% of bets and 96% of the money are on the Tigers, and I get why. Memphis runs the ball, and Tulane can't stop the run.

The Tigers average 5.9 yards per carry and 247 rushing yards per game. The Green Wave allow 5 yards per carry, 121st of 138 FBS teams in run defense. That's the game right there. When Memphis throws, it works too. The Tigers gain 10.5 yards per pass attempt against a Tulane defense giving up 7.6 per attempt, and they're scoring 38.5 points per game, 24th in the FBS. Tulane is scoring 18.4 a game, 124th of 138, and sits 102nd in SP+. Somebody has to keep up, and I don't see who.

What worries me is Memphis can't stop the run either, allowing 4.9 yards per carry, and Tulane averages 4.7. If the Green Wave grind long drives, this gets tight. But they haven't shown the offense to do it for four quarters.

Washington vs. Purdue, 8 p.m. ET

Pick: Washington Huskies +3.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

Purdue's defense is the bet. The Boilermakers are allowing 31.3 points per game, 121st of 138 FBS teams, and now they get a Huskies offense that gains 7.7 yards per pass attempt. Purdue is giving up 8 per attempt, 116th in the country. Washington should score enough that 3.5 points is a comfortable cushion.

The market agrees so far. 66% of bets and 73% of the money are on the Huskies, and the line has moved from +2.5 to +3.5. The run matchup is fine too. Purdue averages 3.7 yards per carry and Washington allows 3.9, so the Boilermakers aren't going to control this on the ground. Washington is +5 in turnover margin through 6 games, and in a game with wind around 18 mph and a 70% chance of rain at Ross-Ade, ball security matters even more.

The third-down number is the problem. The Huskies are converting 31.3%, 122nd of 138 FBS teams. If that kills drives in bad weather, Purdue hangs around. But the Boilermakers rank 62nd in SP+ and give up too many points for me to trust them to win this outright.