Best Bets · NCAAF

College Football Week 7 Best Bets: 2 Picks for Thursday

By Wyatt Deane — Spent nine seasons breaking down All-22 film for a college staff. Wyatt covers the NFL and college football through matchups and personnel.

Thu, Oct 15, 2026, 7:09 AM ET

Three games on the Thursday card, the first starting at 7:30 p.m. ET, and I'm going with two of them. One is a total that has been falling all week, and the other is a short road favorite I think wins by more than the number.

East Carolina vs. UAB, 7:30 p.m. ET

Pick: East Carolina/UAB Under 47.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

The market has been pounding this under since the number posted. This total opened at 53.5 and has been bet all the way down to 47.5, and I still think there is room to go lower. When a line drops six full points, you have to ask what the early money saw, and I see it too.

Neither offense can throw the ball well enough to scare anyone. East Carolina gains just 6.6 yards per pass attempt, and UAB is giving up only 6.3 per attempt, which ranks 33rd in the FBS. The Pirates are even worse on third down, converting just 27% of the time, which is 132nd out of 138 teams. UAB is scoring 22.2 points per game through six games, 109th in the country, and now they face a Pirates defense allowing just 3.2 yards per carry, 23rd in the FBS. The Blazers want to run it, averaging 179.5 rushing yards per game, but that strength runs right into the best part of East Carolina's defense.

What worries me is that games involving these two teams have averaged 47.7 total points this season, just a tick above this number. But that is a small margin, and the way both offenses struggle to sustain drives tells me this one stays under.

Georgia Southern vs. Old Dominion, 7:30 p.m. ET

Pick: Georgia Southern Eagles -3.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Old Dominion cannot score, and that is the whole ballgame. The Monarchs are putting up 18.2 points per game through six games, which ranks 126th out of 138 FBS teams. They rank 108th nationally in SP+, the opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, and nothing they do on offense suggests they can keep pace with anyone decent.

The Monarchs average 3.1 yards per carry and 124.2 rushing yards per game, and Georgia Southern allows 3.7 per carry, which is near the middle nationally. Old Dominion gains just 6 yards per pass attempt, so they are not going to beat anyone through the air either. They convert 33.3% of their third downs, 113th in the country, which means drive after drive stalls out. On the other side, the Monarchs defense is allowing 27.5 points per game, so Georgia Southern should find the end zone enough to build a cushion.

The risk is that Old Dominion's pass defense is actually respectable, giving up 6.3 yards per attempt, 35th in the FBS. If the Eagles cannot get their passing game going, this could stay close. But Georgia Southern is the better team by every measure, and laying less than a field goal against an offense this broken is a bet I will make every time.