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Seahawks vs. Broncos Prediction, Odds and Pick for Thursday, Oct. 15

By Wyatt Deane — Spent nine seasons breaking down All-22 film for a college staff. Wyatt covers the NFL and college football through matchups and personnel.

Thu, Oct 15, 2026, 7:08 AM ET

The Seahawks head to Denver for Thursday night football, and the number that matters here is 40.5. That total looks high when you look at how these teams move the ball. Denver gains just 5.1 yards per pass attempt, and Seattle's defense allows 4.7 per attempt, best in the NFL. The Broncos are scoring 19.4 points per game, and the Seahawks are converting 29.3% of their third downs.

The Pick

Pick: Seahawks/Broncos Under 40.5 (-105 at FanDuel)

Denver's passing attack is stuck in neutral, gaining just 5.1 yards per attempt, and now they face a Seattle defense allowing 4.7 yards per attempt, best in the NFL. When a team that already struggles to generate offense through the air runs into the league's stingiest pass defense by that measure, drives stall quickly. The Broncos are scoring 19.4 points per game through five weeks, 26th in the league, and there's no reason to expect a sudden explosion against this unit.

Seattle's offense hasn't been much better at sustaining drives. The Seahawks are converting 29.3% of their third downs, 31st in the NFL, which means they're punting early and often even when they do move the ball some. Denver's ground game hasn't given defenses much to worry about either, averaging 3.6 yards per carry and 84.6 rushing yards per game, while Seattle allows just 3.4 yards per carry, seventh in the league.

The market has already figured this out. Seventy-three percent of bets and 76% of the money are on the under, which tells you sharp bettors see the same thing. Games involving these teams have averaged 44.7 total points this season, which is the one number that makes me pause, but the Seahawks are allowing 21 points per game, eighth in the NFL, and Denver's offense simply doesn't have the firepower to push this total over by themselves.