Game Preview · NCAAF

Delaware vs. Western Kentucky Prediction, Odds and Pick for Tuesday, Oct. 27

By Wyatt Deane — Spent nine seasons breaking down All-22 film for a college staff. Wyatt covers the NFL and college football through matchups and personnel.

Tue, Oct 27, 2026, 7:01 AM ET

Delaware heads to Western Kentucky on Tuesday night in a Week 9 matchup of two teams still trying to find an identity on offense. The Hilltoppers are scoring 21.3 points per game through 7 games, 112th of 138 FBS teams, and the Blue Hens have their own problems moving the chains. The total sits at 57.5, and this one comes down to whether either offense can string enough drives together to push the score past it.

The Pick

Pick: Delaware/Western Kentucky Under 57.5 (-108 at DraftKings)

Western Kentucky's offense is the reason to bet this under. The Hilltoppers are scoring 21.3 points per game, 112th of 138 FBS teams, and nothing about how they get there suggests a breakout is coming. They average 3.7 yards per carry and 134.7 rushing yards per game, which means long, grinding possessions that often stall before the end zone.

Delaware's defense is built to keep that going. The Blue Hens allow 3.8 yards per carry, near the middle in run defense, so Western Kentucky isn't walking into a front it can push around. If the Hilltoppers can't run it better than they have all year, they're not suddenly lighting up the scoreboard, and this total needs real production from them to get there.

The Blue Hens aren't going to carry their end of a shootout either. They're converting 33% of their third downs, 122nd of 138 FBS teams, and an offense that can't stay on the field can't score in bunches. Games involving these two teams have averaged 54.3 total points this season, against a total of 57.5, and the market has already nudged this number down from 58.5 to 57.5. The money agrees, with 61% of it on the under against 46% of the bets.

What worries me is the defenses, because neither one is good. Western Kentucky is allowing 30.6 points per game, 116th of 138 FBS teams, and Delaware is giving up 28.4. If both offenses find the end zone early and this turns into a trading game, the under is in real trouble. But bad offenses against bad defenses usually produce punts and field goals more than touchdowns, and I'd rather bet on two units that can't move the ball than two that can't stop anybody. Give me the under.