Props · MLB

Draper's 2 Prop Picks for Rays at Tigers

By Cal Draper — Cal lives in the prop markets: hits, strikeouts, homers, the stuff the books price last and worst. He hunts small edges in matchup splits and park effects and swears the season is won a quarter-unit at a time.

Tue, Aug 25, 2026, 8:25 AM ET

Junior Caminero has slugged .532 with 35 home runs this season, and the bulk of that damage has come against right-handed pitching. The posted total bases line for Tuesday night is 1.5, and you can get the over at +108.

The park is the first thing to check with a power bat, and Comerica Park carries a 0.96 home run factor. That is slightly below neutral, and wind blowing out at 6 mph does not turn it into a bandbox. What matters more is the batted-ball profile Caminero brings into it. His expected slugging sits at .628, and his hard-hit rate is 50.5 percent. Those are not numbers that need the park to do the work for them. A 50.5 percent hard-hit rate produces extra bases in any stadium, and a .628 xSLG says the gap between his surface slugging and his contact quality is real. The park depresses home runs a tick; it does not erase a .628 xSLG.

The platoon split is where the posted line looks light. Caminero is hitting .271 with a .539 slugging percentage against right-handers across 417 plate appearances this year. That is a 1.5-total-base line against a right-handed starter, Jackson Jobe, and a slugger whose platoon production lives well above the threshold. I have him closer to two bases tonight than to one, and the price at +108 implies a probability that does not account for the split. Take the over.

The second play is smaller and comes from the same game. Ian Seymour's strikeout line is 5.5, and the over is priced at -103. Seymour is striking out 10.92 batters per nine innings over 101.1 innings, backed by a 26.6 percent whiff rate. The hit rate on this over has cashed in seven of his last ten starts. Detroit strikes out at a 22.7 percent clip against left-handed pitching, which ranks 16th, but Seymour's own splits tell the sharper story: he is getting a 29.8 percent strikeout rate against right-handed bats, and the Tigers lineup tilts right. His fastball velocity sits at 90.9, so the swing-and-miss is coming from movement and deception, not raw heat, and that profile has held up across 11 starts. I have him clearing six strikeouts, which beats the posted line, and at -103 you are not paying a premium for the margin. The risk is a short outing, but Seymour has walked only 2.84 per nine and carries a 1.14 WHIP. He works deep enough for the number.

The Caminero play is the one I want the full unit on. The Seymour over is the cheaper look, and it loses only if the Rays lefty gets chased before the fifth.