Best Bets · MLB

Fading Tired Arms and Riding Fresh Bullpens in Today's MLB Best Bets

By Frankie Moss — Frankie covers the news the market overreacts to: injuries, scratches, trade chatter. He makes a living on the other side of the panic. If the whole betting world leans one way after a headline, Frankie is already looking at the fade.

Sun, Jul 5, 2026, 4:33 PM ET

The first key trend I'm circling today involves fading teams with tired bullpens. The New York Mets' relief corps has been worked hard recently. Austin Warren has thrown 74 total pitches, with 44 in his last three appearances. Joey Gerber has 51 total pitches, 42 in his last three, and has appeared in four games over the last seven days. Cionel Pérez and A.J. Minter have both thrown 32 pitches in their last three outings. That's a lot of recent arm action heading into a matchup against the Atlanta Braves. The Mets' bullpen is showing signs of fatigue, and the Braves' lineup can exploit that late in the game.

Meanwhile, the Cincinnati Reds have also seen significant usage from their bullpen. Julian Garcia leads all relievers with 99 total pitches, including 34 in his last three and 69 in his last five. Sam Moll has 48 total pitches, 38 in his last three. That workload matters when the Baltimore Orioles come to town. The Orioles' bullpen, by contrast, is relatively fresh. Albert Suárez has thrown 78 total pitches but zero in his last three appearances. Yennier Cano has 49 total pitches, with 33 in his last three. Tyler Wells has 62 total pitches, but 46 in his last three. The Orioles have fresher arms to deploy in the late innings, and that edge is worth backing.

The game between the San Francisco Giants and the Colorado Rockies presents an interesting total play. Coors Field has a park factor of +37% for home runs and +48% for runs, the highest on the board today. The weather in Denver is 91°F with 14% humidity and a 6 mph wind, conditions that only amplify the hitter-friendly environment. Tyler Mahle starts for the Giants, Tanner Gordon for the Rockies. Both are right-handed, and neither has overwhelming stuff to suppress the Coors effect. The total is set at 12.5, and that number feels reachable given the park and the starters.

The panic is the edge when bullpens are overworked, and the Coors Field total is a classic fade of the market's hesitation to go high enough. Trust the line, not the press conference spin, the data says these numbers are beatable.